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作者：Xu, Xiaofei; Chen, Ying; Chen, Cathy W. S.; Lin, Xiancheng
作者单位：National University of Singapore; Feng Chia University; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：This research proposes a comprehensive ALG model (Adaptive Log-linear zero-inflated Generalized Poisson integer-valued GARCH) to describe the dynamics of integer-valued time series of crime incidents with the features of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, overdispersion and excessive number of zero observations. The proposed ALG model captures time-varying non-linear dependence and simultaneously incorporates the impact of multiple exogenous variables in a unified modeling framework. We use ...
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作者：Barkley, Brian G.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Clemens, John D.; Ali, Mohammad; Emch, Michael E.
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research (ICDDR); Johns Hopkins University; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：Understanding the population-level effects of vaccines has important public health policy implications. Inferring vaccine effects from an observational study is challenging because participants are not randomized to vaccine (i.e., treatment). Observational studies of infectious diseases present the additional challenge that vaccinating one participant may affect another participant's outcome, that is, there may be interference. In this paper recent approaches to defining vaccine effects in the...
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作者：Sandholtz, Nathan; Bornn, Luke
作者单位：Simon Fraser University
摘要：In this paper we model basketball plays as episodes from team-specific nonstationary Markov decision processes (MDPs) with shot clock dependent transition probabilities. Bayesian hierarchical models are employed in the modeling and parametrization of the transition probabilities to borrow strength across players and through time. To enable computational feasibility, we combine lineup-specific MDPs into team-average MDPs using a novel transition weighting scheme. Specifically, we derive the dyn...
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作者：Sun, Zhe; Xu, Wanli; Cong, Xiaomei; Li, Gen; Chen, Kun
作者单位：University of Connecticut; University of Connecticut; Columbia University
摘要：The neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) experience is known to be one of the most crucial factors that drive preterm infants' neurodevelopmental and health outcome. It is hypothesized that stressful early life experience of very preterm neonate is imprinting gut microbiome by the regulation of the so-called brain-gut axis, and, consequently, certain microbiome markers are predictive of later infant neurodevelopment. To investigate, a preterm infant study was conducted; infant fecal samples wer...
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作者：Jeong, Seok-Oh; Choi, Dongseok; Jang, Woncheol
作者单位：Hankuk University Foreign Studies; Oregon Health & Science University; Seoul National University (SNU)
摘要：Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody associated vasculitis (AAV) is extremely heterogeneous in clinical presentation and involves multiple organ systems. While the clinical presentation of AAV is diverse, we hypothesized that all AAV share common pathways and tested the hypothesis based on three different microarray studies of peripheral leukocytes, sinus and orbital inflammation disease. For the hypothesis testing we developed a two-component semiparametric mixture model to estimate the local ...
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作者：Mayer, Imke; Sverdrup, Erik; Gauss, Tobias; Moyer, Jean-Denis; Wager, Stefan; Josse, Julie
作者单位：Stanford University; Assistance Publique Hopitaux Paris (APHP); Universite Paris Cite; Hopital Universitaire Beaujon - APHP; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; ENSTA Paris; Universite Paris Cite
摘要：Missing attributes are ubiquitous in causal inference, as they are in most applied statistical work. In this paper we consider various sets of assumptions under which causal inference is possible despite missing attributes and discuss corresponding approaches to average treatment effect estimation, including generalized propensity score methods and multiple imputation. Across an extensive simulation study, we show that no single method systematically outperforms others. We find, however, that ...
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作者：Stallrich, Jonathan; Islam, Md Nazmul; Staicu, Ana-Maria; Crouch, Dustin; Pan, Lizhi; Huang, He
作者单位：North Carolina State University; University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; Tianjin University; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; North Carolina State University
摘要：Robotic hand prostheses require a controller to decode muscle contraction information, such as electromyogram (EMG) signals, into the user's desired hand movement. State-of-the-art decoders demand extensive training, require data from a large number of EMG sensors and are prone to poor predictions. Biomechanical models of a single movement degree-of-freedom tell us that relatively few muscles, and, hence, fewer EMG sensors are needed to predict movement. We propose a novel decoder based on a d...
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作者：Spencer, Neil A.; Murray, Jared S.
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; Carnegie Mellon University; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：When a latent shoeprint is discovered at a crime scene, forensic analysts inspect it for distinctive patterns of wear such as scratches and holes (known as accidentals) on the source shoe's sole. If its accidentals correspond to those of a suspect's shoe, the print can be used as forensic evidence to place the suspect at the crime scene. The strength of this evidence depends on the random match probability-the chance that a shoe chosen at random would match the crime scene print's accidentals....
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作者：Scharwaechter, Erik; Mueller, Emmanuel
作者单位：University of Bonn
摘要：Hate speech is ubiquitous on the Web. Recently, the offline causes that contribute to online hate speech have received increasing attention. A recurring question is whether the occurrence of extreme events offline systematically triggers bursts of hate speech online, indicated by peaks in the volume of hateful social media posts. Formally, this question translates into measuring the association between a sparse event series and a time series. We propose a novel statistical methodology to measu...
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作者：Hung, Kenneth; Fithian, William
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Large-scale replication studies like the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RP:P) provide invaluable systematic data on scientific replicability, but most analyses and interpretations of the data fail to agree on the definition of replicability and disentangle the inexorable consequences of known selection bias from competing explanations. We discuss three concrete definitions of replicability based on: (1) whether published findings about the signs of effects are mostly correct, (2) how eff...
