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作者：McLennan-Smith, Timothy A.; Kalloniatis, Alexander C.; Jovanoski, Zlatko; Sidhu, Harvinder S.; Roberts, Dale O.; Watt, Simon; Towers, Isaac N.
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; Defence Science & Technology; Australian National University
摘要：Traditional combat models, such as Lanchester's equations, are typically limited to two competing populations and exhibit solutions characterized by exponential decay-and growth if logistics are included. We enrich such models to account for modern and future complexities, particularly around the role of interagency engagement in operations as often displayed in counterinsurgency operations. To address this, we explore incorporation of nontrophic effects from ecological modeling. This provides...
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作者：Liu, Yan; Sun, Yacheng; Zhang, Dan
作者单位：Hong Kong Polytechnic University; Tsinghua University; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：We study the effects of redemption hurdles on reward program members' decision making and firm profitability. We focus on the popular Buy X, Get One Free (BXGO) programs, which set a redemption threshold (X) and possibly, an expiration term for the reward. In our model, forward-looking consumers interact with a monopolistic firm and strategically make purchase and redemption decisions over an infinite time horizon. Our analysis leads to the following results. First, a consumer's purchase utili...
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作者：Birge, John R.; Feng, Yifan; Keskin, N. Bora; Schultz, Adam
作者单位：University of Chicago; National University of Singapore; Duke University; Uber Technologies, Inc.
摘要：We study the profit-maximization problem of a market maker in a spread betting market. In this market, the market maker quotes cutoff lines for the outcome of a certain future event as prices, and bettors bet on whether the event outcome exceeds the cutoff lines. Anonymous bettors with heterogeneous strategic behavior and information levels participate in the market. The market maker has limited information on the event outcome distribution, aiming to extract information from the market (i.e.,...
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作者：Allon, Gad; Drakopoulos, Kimon; Manshadi, Vahideh
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Southern California; Yale University
摘要：In this paper, we study a model of information consumption in which consumers sequentially interact with a platform that offers a menu of signals (posts) about an underlying state of the world (fact). At each time, incapable of consuming all posts, consumers screen the posts and only select (and consume) one from the offered menu. We show that, in the presence of uncertainty about the accuracy of these posts and as the number of posts increases, adverse effects, such as slow learning and polar...
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作者：Shi, Pengyi; Helm, Jonathan E.; Deglise-Hawkinson, Jivan; Pan, Julian
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; Indiana University System; IU Kelley School of Business; Indiana University Bloomington
摘要：When to discharge a patient plays an important role in hospital patient flow management and the quality of care and patient outcomes. In this work, we develop and implement a data-integrated decision support framework to aid hospitals in managing the delicate balance between readmission risk at discharge and ward congestion. We formulate a large-scale Markov decision process (MDP) that integrates a personalized readmission prediction model to dynamically prescribe both how many and which patie...
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作者：Liesio, Juuso; Vilkkumaa, Eeva
作者单位：Aalto University
摘要：Portfolio decision analysis models support selecting a portfolio of projects in view of multiple objectives and limited resources. In applications, portfolio utility is commonly modeled as the sum of the projects' multiattribute utilities, although such approaches lack rigorous decision-theoretic justification. This paper establishes the axiomatic foundations of a more general class of multilinear portfolio utility functions, which includes additive and multiplicative portfolio utility functio...
