-
作者：Aviv, Y; Pazgal, A
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：In this paper, we develop a stylized partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) framework to study a dynamic pricing problem faced by sellers of fashion-like goods. We consider a retailer that plans to sell a given stock of items during a finite sales season. The objective of the retailer is to dynamically price the product in a way that maximizes expected revenues. Our model brings together various types of uncertainties about the demand, some of which are resolvable through sales obs...
-
作者：Read, D; Frederick, S; Orsel, B; Rahman, J
作者单位：Durham University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We describe a new anomaly in intertemporal choice-the date/delay effect: discount rates that are imputed when time is described using calendar dates (e.g., on October 17) are markedly lower than those revealed when future outcomes are described in terms of the corresponding delay (e.g., in six months). Date descriptions not only reduce discount rates, but also affect the implied shape of the discount function: When inferred from intertemporal choices between options referenced by calendar date...
-
作者：Birnbaum, MH
作者单位：California State University System; California State University Fullerton
摘要：This paper tests new independence properties to compare three models of risky decision making. According to the rank-affected multiplicative (RAM) weights model, all three properties should be satisfied; according to the transfer of attention exchange (TAX) model, two should be satisfied and one can be violated. However, according to cumulative prospect theory (CPT), all three properties will be violated if the probability weighting function is nonlinear. Although CPT is flexible enough to acc...
-
作者：Fox, CR; Clemen, RT
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Duke University
摘要：Decision and risk analysts have considerable discretion in designing procedures for eliciting subjective probabilities. One of the most popular approaches is to specify a particular set of exclusive and exhaustive events for which the assessor provides such judgments. We show that assessed probabilities are systematically biased toward a uniform distribution over all events into which the relevant state space happens to be partitioned, so that probabilities are partition dependent. We surmise ...
-
作者：Miller, N; Resnick, P; Zeckhauser, R
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Many recommendation and decision processes depend on eliciting evaluations of opportunities, products, and vendors. A scoring system is devised that induces honest reporting of feedback. Each rater merely reports a signal, and the system applies proper scoring rules to the implied posterior beliefs about another rater's report. Honest reporting proves to be a Nash equilibrium. The scoring schemes can be scaled to induce appropriate effort by raters and can be extended to handle sequential inte...
-
作者：Srinivasan, V; Park, CS; Chang, DR
作者单位：Stanford University; Korea University; Yonsei University
摘要：The authors propose a new approach for measuring, analyzing, and predicting a brand's equity in a product market. Brand equity is defined as the incremental contribution ($) per year obtained by the brand in comparison to the underlying product (or service) with no brand-building efforts. The incremental contribution is driven by the individual customer's incremental choice probability for the brand in comparison to his choice probability for the underlying product with no brand-building effor...
