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作者：Arya, Anil; Demski, Joel; Glover, Jonathan; Liang, Pierre
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; State University System of Florida; University of Florida; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：A criticism of mechanism design theory is that the optimal mechanism designed for one environment can produce drastically different actions, outcomes, and payoffs in a second, even slightly different, environment. In this sense, the theoretically optimal mechanisms usually studied are not robust. To study robust mechanisms while maintaining an expected utility maximization approach, we study a multiagent model in which the mechanism must be designed before the environment is as well understood...
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作者：DeMiguel, Victor; Garlappi, Lorenzo; Nogales, Francisco J.; Uppal, Raman
作者单位：University of London; London Business School; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：We provide a general framework for finding portfolios that perform well out-of-sample in the presence of estimation error. This framework relies on solving the traditional minimum-variance problem but subject to the additional constraint that the norm of the portfolio-weight vector be smaller than a given threshold. We show that our framework nests as special cases the shrinkage approaches of Jagannathan and Ma (Jagannathan, R., T. Ma. 2003. Risk reduction in large portfolios: Why imposing the...
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作者：Seybert, Nicholas; Bloomfield, Robert
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Cornell University
摘要：Prior research provides only weak and controversial evidence that people overestimate the likelihood of desirable events (wishful thinking), but strong evidence that people bet more heavily on those events (wishful betting). Two experiments show that wishful betting contaminates beliefs in laboratory financial markets because wishful betters appear to possess more favorable information than they actually do. As a consequence, market interaction exacerbates rather than mitigates wishful thinkin...
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作者：Fleder, Daniel; Hosanagar, Kartik
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：This paper examines the effect of recommender systems on the diversity of sales. Two anecdotal views exist about such effects. Some believe recommenders help consumers discover new products and thus increase sales diversity. Others believe recommenders only reinforce the popularity of already-popular products. This paper seeks to reconcile these seemingly incompatible views. We explore the question in two ways. First, modeling recommender systems analytically allows us to explore their path-de...
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作者：Yao, Yuliang; Dresner, Martin; Palmer, Jonathan
作者单位：Lehigh University; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：Prior literature has documented the performance benefits from the use of electronic data interchange (EDI) and the Internet. Using purchase and fulfillment records from the U. S. government's Federal Supply Service, we provide a direct comparison of performance between a private network EDI channel and an Internet electronic market. Performance is measured using order cycle time and complete orders fulfilled. Our findings show that the Internet-based electronic market outperforms the EDI-based...
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作者：Neslin, Scott A.; Novak, Thomas P.; Baker, Kenneth R.; Hoffman, Donna L.
作者单位：Dartmouth College; University of California System; University of California Riverside
摘要：W e develop and test an optimization model for maximizing response rates for online marketing research survey panels. The model consists of (1) a decision tree predictive model that classifies panelists into states and forecasts the response rate for panelists in each state and (2) a linear program that specifies how many panelists should be solicited from each state to maximize response rate. The model is forward looking in that it optimizes over a finite horizon during which S studies are to...
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作者：Su, Xuanming; Zhang, Fuqiang
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：This paper studies the role of product availability in attracting consumer demand. We start with a newsvendor model, but additionally assume that stockouts are costly to consumers. The seller sets an observable price and an unobservable stocking quantity. Consumers anticipate the likelihood of stockouts and determine whether to visit the seller. We characterize the rational expectations equilibrium in this game. We propose two strategies that the seller can use to improve profits: (i) commitme...
