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作者：Bothner, Matthew S.; Podolny, Joel M.; Smith, Edward Bishop
作者单位：Cornell University; Apple Inc; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：What is the best way to design tournaments for status, in which individuals labor primarily for the esteem of their peers? What process, in other words, should organizers of status-based contests impose upon those who covet peer recognition? We propose a formal model of status-based competition that contrasts two competing alternatives. The first, following Merton, is the Matthew Effect, according to which a tournament's architect directs slack resources to elite actors and thus widens the dis...
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作者：Bloechlinger, Andreas; Leippold, Markus
作者单位：University of Zurich
摘要：We develop a new goodness-of-fit test for validating the performance of probability forecasts. Our test statistic is particularly powerful under sparseness and dependence in the observed data. To build our test statistic, we start from a formal definition of calibrated forecasts, which we operationalize by introducing two components. The first component tests the level of the estimated probabilities; the second validates the shape, measuring the differentiation between high and low probability...
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作者：Blavatskyy, Pavlo R.
作者单位：University of Innsbruck
摘要：This paper presents a new model of probabilistic binary choice under risk. In this model, a decision maker always satisfies first-order stochastic dominance. If neither lottery stochastically dominates the other alternative, a decision maker chooses in a probabilistic manner. The proposed model is derived from four standard axioms (completeness, weak stochastic transitivity, continuity, and common consequence independence) and two relatively new axioms. The proposed model provides a better fit...
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作者：Shang, Weixin; Liu, Liming
作者单位：Fudan University; Hong Kong Polytechnic University
摘要：We investigate firms' competitive behaviors in industries where customers are sensitive to both promised delivery time (PDT) and quality of service (QoS) measured by the on-time delivery rate. To study the competition in PDT at the marketing level, we construct an oligopoly game with an external QoS requirement. We show that there exists a unique Nash equilibrium, and the equilibrium QoS exhibits a switching surface structure with respect to capacities. To study the competition in capacity at ...
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作者：Goldfarb, Avi; Tucker, Catherine E.
作者单位：University of Toronto; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We explore substitution patterns across advertising platforms. Using data on the advertising prices paid by lawyers for 139 Google search terms in 195 locations, we exploit a natural experiment in ambulance-chaser regulations across states. When lawyers cannot contact clients by mail, advertising prices per click for search engine advertisements are 5%-7% higher. Therefore, online advertising substitutes for offline advertising. This substitution toward online advertising is strongest in marke...
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作者：van de Kuilen, Gijs; Wakker, Peter P.
作者单位：Tilburg University; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam
摘要：This paper introduces a parameter-free method for measuring the weighting functions of prospect theory and rank-dependent utility. These weighting functions capture risk attitudes, subjective beliefs, and ambiguity attitudes. Our method, called the midweight method, is based on a convenient way to obtain midpoints in the weighting function scale. It can be used both for risk (known probabilities) and for uncertainty (unknown probabilities). The resulting integrated treatment of risk and uncert...
