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作者：Grushka-Cockayne, Yael; Jose, Victor Richmond R.; Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Jr.
作者单位：University of Virginia; Georgetown University
摘要：Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about the challenges associated with aggregating such forecasts. We introduce a theoretical model to examine the combined effect of overfitting and overconfidence on the average forecast. Their combined effect is that the mean and media...
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作者：Kou, Steven; Yu, Cindy; Zhong, Haowen
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作者：Jaeker, Jillian A. Berry; Tucker, Anita L.
作者单位：Boston University; Brandeis University
摘要：Service organizations face a trade-off between high utilization and responsiveness. High utilization can improve financial performance, but causes congestion, which increases throughput time. Employees may manage this trade-off by reducing processing times during periods of high workload, resulting in an inverted U-shaped relationship between utilization and throughput time. Using two years of inpatient data from 203 California hospitals, we find evidence that patient length of stay (LOS) incr...
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作者：Kuksov, Dmitri; Lin, Yuanfang
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas
摘要：Oftentimes, close competitors carry partially overlapping assortments in seeming contradiction to the principle of maximum differentiation. One of the justifications of such practice is that an overlapping assortment with competitive prices on the common products may prevent further consumer search and therefore could be useful even when profits from the overlapping products do not justify the costs of carrying them. In this paper, we examine the validity of this intuition and show that such s...
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作者：Alpern, Steve; Baston, Vic
作者单位：University of Warwick; University of Southampton
摘要：This paper analyzes a variation of the secretary problem in which two selectors with different fields of interest each want to appoint one of the n candidates with as much expertise as possible in their field. Selectors simultaneously vote to accept or reject: Unanimous decisions are respected, and candidates with a split decision are hired with probability p. Each candidate arrives with expertise x and y in the two fields, uniformly and independently distributed on [0; 1] and observable to bo...
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作者：Abarbanell, Jeffery; Park, Hyungshin
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina School of Medicine; Southern Methodist University
摘要：Several influential studies have concluded that earnings surprises just to the right or to the left of a hypothesized bright line produce distinct price reactions compared with surrounding earnings surprises because they convey special meaning. In this study, we examine whether previous inferences of asymmetric stock price reactions to bright-line surprises are observed when empirical tests are designed to be consistent with a rational expectations equilibrium. Focusing on a small range of ear...
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作者：Crama, Pascale; De Reyck, Bert; Taneri, Niyazi
作者单位：Singapore Management University; University of London; University College London; Singapore University of Technology & Design
摘要：Research and development (R&D) collaborations, common in high-tech industries, are challenging to manage because of technical and market risks as well as incentive problems. We investigate how control rights, options, payment terms, and timing allow the innovator to capture maximum value from its R&D collaborations with a marketer. Our study reveals a counterintuitive result; the innovator may, under certain conditions, prefer to grant launch control rights or buyout options to the marketer de...
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作者：Ryall, Michael D.; Sampson, Rachelle C.
作者单位：University of Toronto; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：We develop a model in which the parties to a joint production project have a choice of specifying contractual performance in terms of actions or deliverables. Penalties for noncompliance are not specified; rather, they are left to the courts under the legal doctrine of compensatory damages. We analyze three scenarios of increasing uncertainty: full information, where implications of partner actions are known; risk, where implications can be probabilistically quantified; and ambiguity, where im...
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作者：Cerreia-Vioglio, Simone; Maccheroni, Fabio; Marinacci, Massimo
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：We characterize the consistency of a large class of nonexpected utility preferences (including mean-variance preferences and prospect theory preferences) with stochastic orders (for example, stochastic dominances of different degrees). Our characterization rests on a novel decision theoretic result that provides a behavioral interpretation of the set of all derivatives of the functional representing the decision maker's preferences. As an illustration, we consider in some detail prospect theor...
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作者：Papanastasiou, Yiangos; Savva, Nicos
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of London; London Business School
摘要：When a product of uncertain quality is first introduced, consumers may choose to strategically delay their purchasing decisions in anticipation of the product reviews of their peers. This paper investigates how the presence of social learning affects the strategic interaction between a dynamic-pricing monopolist and a forward-looking consumer population, within a simple two-period model. Our analysis yields three main insights. First, we find that the presence of social learning has significan...
