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作者：Coker, Beau; Rudin, Cynthia; King, Gary
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; Duke University; Duke University; Harvard University
摘要：Inference is the process of using facts we know to learn about facts we do not know. A theory of inference gives assumptions necessary to get from the former to the latter, along with a definition for and summary of the resulting uncertainty. Any one theory of inference is neither right nor wrong but merely an axiom that may or may not be useful. Each of the many diverse theories of inference can be valuable for certain applications. However, no existing theory of inference addresses the tende...
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作者：Cong, Lin William; Xie, Danxia; Zhang, Longtian
作者单位：Cornell University; Tsinghua University; Central University of Finance & Economics
摘要：We build an endogenous growth model with consumer-generated data as a new key factor for knowledge accumulation. Consumers balance between providing data for profit and potential privacy infringement. Intermediate good producers use data to innovate and contribute to the final good production, which fuels economic growth. Data are dynamically nonrival with flexible ownership while their production is endogenous and policy-dependent. Although a decentralized economy can grow at the same rate (b...
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作者：Elmachtoub, Adam N.; Gupta, Vishal; Hamilton, Michael L.
作者单位：Columbia University; Columbia University; University of Southern California; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
摘要：Increased availability of high-quality customer information has fueled interest in personalized pricing strategies, that is, strategies that predict an individual customer's valuation for a product and then offer a price tailored to that customer. Although the appeal of personalized pricing is clear, it may also incur large costs in the forms of market research, investment in information technology and analytics expertise, and branding risks. In light of these trade-offs, our work studies the ...
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作者：Dou, Winston Wei; Ji, Yan
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：We develop a continuous-time industry equilibrium model of monopolistic competition to understand how product markups are determined in the presence of external financing costs and customer capital. Firms optimally set markups to balance the tradeoff between profiting from their existing customer base and developing their future customer base. We characterize how the equilibrium markups are determined by the interaction between the marginal value of corporate liquidity and the marginal value o...
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作者：Gutierrez, Emilio; Rubli, Adrian
摘要：Existing literature suggests that hospital occupancy matters for quality of care, as measured by various patient outcomes. However, estimating the causal effect of increased hospital busyness on in-hospital mortality remains an elusive task due to statistical power challenges and the difficulty in separating shocks to occupancy from changes in patient composition. Using data from a large public hospital system in Mexico, we estimate the impact of congestion on in-hospital mortality by exploiti...
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作者：Carmona, Rene; Wang, Peiqi
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：We use the recently developed probabilistic analysis of mean field games with finitely many states in the weak formulation to set up a principal/agent contract theory model where the principal faces a large population of agents interacting in a mean field manner. We reduce the problem to the optimal control of dynamics of the McKean-Vlasov type, and we solve this problem explicitly for a class of models with concave rewards. The paper concludes with a numerical example demonstrating the power ...
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作者：Tian, Hui; Yim, Andrew; Newton, David P.
作者单位：Beijing Institute of Technology; Tsinghua University; City St Georges, University of London; University of Bath
摘要：We show that quantile regression is better than ordinary-least-squares (OLS) regression in forecasting profitability for a range of profitability measures following the conventional setup of the accounting literature, including the mean absolute forecast error (MAFE) evaluation criterion. Moreover, we perform both a simulated-data and an archival-data analysis to examine how the forecasting performance of quantile regression against OLS changes with the shape of the profitability distribution....
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作者：Leng, Mingming; Luo, Chunlin; Liang, Liping
作者单位：Lingnan University; Jiangxi University of Finance & Economics
摘要：We use cooperative game theory to investigate multiplayer allocation problems under the almost diminishing marginal contributions (ADMC) property. This property indicates that a player's marginal contribution to a non-empty coalition decreases as the size of the coalition increases. We develop ADMC games for such problems and derive a necessary and sufficient condition for the non-emptiness of the core. When the core is non-empty, at least one extreme point exists, and the maximum number of ex...
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作者：Sumida, Mika; Gallego, Guillermo; Rusmevichientong, Paat; Topaloglu, Huseyin; Davis, James
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; University of Southern California; Uber Technologies, Inc.
摘要：We examine the revenue-utility assortment optimization problem with the goal of finding an assortment that maximizes a linear combination of the expected revenue of the firm and the expected utility of the customer. This criterion captures the trade-off between the firm-centric objective of maximizing the expected revenue and the customer-centric objective of maximizing the expected utility. The customers choose according to the multinomial logit model, and there is a constraint on the offered...
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作者：Chellappa, Ramnath K.; Mukherjee, Rajiv
作者单位：Emory University; Southern Methodist University
摘要：The release of a new platform version is often preceded by prelaunch activities including a preannouncement of new features, improvements, and other innovations. The information contained within these preannouncements not only shape expectations of distinct but connected sides, for example, users and developers in a video game platform, but also informs a rival platform in a competitive market. Through a game-theoretic analysis of three different preannouncement strategies (formal, informal, a...
