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作者：Thompson, Matt
作者单位：Queens University - Canada
摘要：This paper presents a methodology for the valuation, optimization, market, margin and credit risk management of gas-fired power plants and associated tolling contracts. Term structure models for the power and gas forward curves are employed to facilitate hedging and risk adjustment and for improved forecasting of short-term prices. The model for the power forward curve is capable of reproducing the important phenomena often observed in power markets, including spot price spikes and spike clust...
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作者：Loehndorf, Nils; Wozabal, David; Minner, Stefan
作者单位：Vienna University of Economics & Business; Technical University of Munich
摘要：We propose a new approach to optimize operations of hydro storage systems with multiple connected reservoirs whose operators participate in wholesale electricity markets. Our formulation integrates short-term intraday with long-term interday decisions. The intraday problem considers bidding decisions as well as storage operation during the day and is formulated as a stochastic program. The interday problem is modeled as a Markov decision process of managing storage operation over time, for whi...
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作者：Abhishek, Vibhanshu; Hosanagar, Kartik
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We study optimal bidding strategies for advertisers in sponsored search auctions. In general, these auctions are run as variants of second-price auctions but have been shown to be incentive incompatible. Thus, advertisers have to be strategic about bidding. Uncertainty in the decision-making environment, budget constraints, and the presence of a large portfolio of keywords makes the bid optimization problem nontrivial. We present an analytical model to compute the optimal bids for keywords in ...
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作者：Glasserman, Paul; Xu, Xingbo
作者单位：Columbia University; Columbia University
摘要：Portfolio selection is vulnerable to the error-amplifying effects of combining optimization with statistical estimation and model error. For dynamic portfolio control, sources of model error include the evolution of market factors and the influence of these factors on asset returns. We develop portfolio control rules that are robust to this type of uncertainty, applying a stochastic notion of robustness to uncertainty in model dynamics. In this stochastic formulation, robustness reflects uncer...
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作者：Giesecke, Kay; Smelov, Dmitry
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：This paper develops a method for the exact simulation of a skeleton, a hitting time, and other functionals of a one-dimensional jump diffusion with state-dependent drift, volatility, jump intensity, and jump size. The method requires the drift function to be C-1, the volatility function to be C-2, and the jump intensity function to be locally bounded. No further structure is imposed on these functions. The method leads to unbiased simulation estimators of security prices, transition densities,...
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作者：Gong, Xiting; Zhou, Sean X.
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong; Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：Emissions trading is a market-based mechanism for curbing emissions, and it has been implemented in Europe, North America, and several other parts of the world. To study its impact on production planning, we develop a dynamic production model, where a manufacturer produces a single product to satisfy random market demands. The manufacturer has access to both a green and a regular production technology, of which the former is more costly but yields fewer emissions. To comply with the emissions ...
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作者：Banciu, Mihai; Mirchandani, Prakash
作者单位：Bucknell University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
摘要：The generalized failure rate of a continuous random variable has demonstrable importance in operations management. If the valuation distribution of a product has an increasing generalized failure rate (that is, the distribution is IGFR), then the associated revenue function is unimodal, and when the generalized failure rate is strictly increasing, the global maximum is uniquely specified. The assumption that the distribution is IGFR is thus useful and frequently held in recent pricing, revenue...
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作者：Noyan, Nilay; Rudolf, Gabor
作者单位：Sabanci University
摘要：For many decision-making problems under uncertainty, it is crucial to develop risk-averse models and specify the decision makers' risk preferences based on multiple stochastic performance measures (or criteria). Incorporating such multivariate preference rules into optimization models is a fairly recent research area. Existing studies focus on extending univariate stochastic dominance rules to the multivariate case. However, enforcing multivariate stochastic dominance constraints can often be ...
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作者：Buchbinder, Niv; Kimbrel, Tracy; Levi, Retsef; Makarychev, Konstantin; Sviridenko, Maxim
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; National Science Foundation (NSF); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Microsoft; University of Warwick
摘要：In this paper, we study an online make-to-order variant of the classical joint replenishment problem (JRP) that has been studied extensively over the years and plays a fundamental role in broader planning issues, such as the management of supply chains. In contrast to the traditional approaches of the stochastic inventory theory, we study the problem using competitive analysis against a worst-case adversary. Our main result is a 3-competitive deterministic algorithm for the online version of t...
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作者：Kim, Song-Hee; Whitt, Ward
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：The theory supporting Little's Law (L = lambda W) is now well developed, applying to both limits of averages and expected values of stationary distributions, but applications of Little's Law with actual system data involve measurements over a finite-time interval, which are neither of these. We advocate taking a statistical approach with such measurements. We investigate how estimates of L and lambda can be used to estimate W when the waiting times are not observed. We advocate estimating conf...
