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作者：Zorc, Sasa; Tsetlin, Ilia
作者单位：University of Virginia; INSEAD Business School
摘要：We model two agents who can benefit from a mutual deal or partnership, yet are also searching for outside alternatives. This generic situation is observed in various settings (e.g., the job market for experts) and involves several decisions. The proposer decides not only on the timing, deadline, and value of her offer but also on how to handle her outside alternatives; the responder decides whether to accept the proposer's offer (if any) and how to handle his own outside alternatives. A respon...
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作者：Bertsimas, Dimitris; Sturt, Bradley
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：The bootstrap is a nonparametric approach for calculating quantities, such as confidence intervals, directly from data. Since calculating exact bootstrap quantities is believed to be intractable, randomized resampling algorithms are traditionally used. In this paper, we present a new perspective on the bootstrapmethod through the lens of counting integer points in polyhedra. Through this new perspective, we make several advances for the bootstrap method, both theoretically and algorithmically....
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作者：Ma, Yuhang; Rusmevichientong, Paat; Sumida, Mika; Topaloglu, Huseyin
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：We provide an approximation algorithm for network revenue management problems. In our approximation algorithm, we construct an approximate policy using value function approximations that are expressed as linear combinations of basis functions. We use a backward recursion to compute the coefficients of the basis functions in the linear combinations. If each product uses at most L resources, then the total expected revenue obtained by our approximate policy is at least 1/(1 + L) of the optimal t...
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作者：Balinski, Michel; Laraki, Rida
作者单位：Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); University of Liverpool
摘要：Majority judgment (MJ) and approval voting (AV) are compared in theory and practice. Criticisms of MJ and claims that AV is superior are refuted. The two primary criticisms have been that MJ is not Condorcet consistent and that it admits the no-show paradox. That MJ is not Condorcet consistent is a good property shared with AV: the domination paradox shows that majority rule may well err in an election between two. Whereas the no-show paradox is in theory possible with MJ, it is as a practical...
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作者：French, Simon
作者单位：University of Warwick
摘要：There is currently much interest in scenario-focused decision analysis (SFDA), a methodology that provides, among other things, supporting analyses in circumstances in which there are deep uncertainties about the future (that is, when experts and decision makers (DMs) cannot come to any agreement on some of the probabilities to use in a Bayesian model). This lack of agreement can mean that sensitivity and robustness analyses show that virtually any strategy may be optimal under the beliefs of ...
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作者：Epstein, Larry G.; Ji, Shaolin
作者单位：Boston University; Shandong University
摘要：We model learning in a continuous-time Brownian setting where there is prior ambiguity. The associated model of preference values robustness and is time-consistent. It is applied to study optimal learning when the choice between actions can be postponed, at a per-unit-time cost, in order to observe a signal that provides information about an unknown parameter. The corresponding optimal stopping problem is solved in closed form, with a focus on two specific settings: Ellsberg's two-urn thought ...
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作者：Ban, Gah-Yi
作者单位：University of London; London Business School
摘要：We revisit the classical dynamic inventory management problem of Scarf [Scarf H (1959b) The optimality of (s, S) policies in the dynamic inventory problem. Arrow KJ, Karlin S, Suppes P, eds. Mathematical Methods in the Social Science (Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA), 196-202.] from the perspective of a decision maker who has n historical selling seasons of data and must make ordering decisions for the upcoming season. We develop a nonparametric estimation procedure for the (S, s) poli...
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作者：Ata, Baris; Peng, Xiaoshan
作者单位：University of Chicago; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; IU Kelley School of Business
摘要：This paper studies the callback option as an instrument to effectively mitigate congestion due to temporary surges in arrivals to a call center. The call arrival process can be an arbitrary point process, allowing uncertainty and temporary surges in the arrival rate, provided that the system is stable. When a customer arrives, the call center manager examines the system state and decides whether to offer the incoming customer the callback option. When the callback option is offered, the custom...
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作者：Le Thi Khanh Hien; Sim, Melvyn; Xu, Huan
作者单位：University of Mons; National University of Singapore
摘要：We study a network fortification problem on a directed network that channels single-commodity resources to fulfill random demands delivered to a subset of the nodes. For given a realization of demands, the malicious interdictor would disrupt the network in a manner that would maximize the total demand shortfalls subject to the interdictor's constraints. To mitigate the risk of such shortfalls, a network's operator can fortify it by providing additional network capacity and/or protecting the no...
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作者：Bansal, Saurabh; Gutierrez, Genaro J.
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：In this paper, we develop a new characterization of multiple-point forecasts provided by experts and use it in an optimization framework to deduce actionable signals, including the mean, standard deviation, or a combination of the two for underlying probability distributions. This framework consists of three steps: (1) calibrate experts' point forecasts using historical data to determine which quantile they provide, on average, when asked for forecasts, (2) quantify the precision in the expert...
