-
作者：Mian, Atif; Sufi, Amir
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：We show that deterioration in household balance sheets, or the housing net worth channel, played a significant role in the sharp decline in U.S. employment between 2007 and 2009. Counties with a larger decline in housing net worth experience a larger decline in non-tradable employment. This result is not driven by industry-specific supply-side shocks, exposure to the construction sector, policy-induced business uncertainty, or contemporaneous credit supply tightening. We find little evidence o...
-
作者：Calonico, Sebastian; Cattaneo, Matias D.; Titiunik, Rocio
作者单位：University of Miami; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：In the regression-discontinuity (RD) design, units are assigned to treatment based on whether their value of an observed covariate exceeds a known cutoff. In this design, local polynomial estimators are now routinely employed to construct confidence intervals for treatment effects. The performance of these confidence intervals in applications, however, may be seriously hampered by their sensitivity to the specific bandwidth employed. Available bandwidth selectors typically yield a large bandwi...
-
作者：Dippel, Christian
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Studying Native American reservations, and their historical formation, I find that their forced integration of autonomous polities into a system of shared governance had large negative long-run consequences, even though the affected people were ethnically and linguistically homogenous. Reservations that combined multiple sub-tribal bands when they were formed are 30% poorer today, even when conditioning on pre-reservation political traditions. The results hold with tribe fixed effects, identif...
-
作者：Deb, Rahul; Mishra, Debasis
作者单位：University of Toronto; Indian Statistical Institute; Indian Statistical Institute Delhi
摘要：We study dominant strategy incentive compatibility in a mechanism design setting with contingent contracts where the payoff of each agent is observed by the principal and can be contracted upon. Our main focus is on the class of linear contracts (one of the most commonly used contingent contracts) which consist of a transfer and a flat rate of profit sharing. We characterize outcomes implementable by linear contracts and provide a foundation for them by showing that, in finite type spaces, eve...
-
作者：Wilson, Andrea
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：Before choosing among two actions with state-dependent payoffs, a Bayesian decision-maker with a finite memory sees a sequence of informative signals, ending each period with fixed chance. He summarizes information observed with a finite-state automaton. I characterize the optimal protocol as an equilibrium of a dynamic game of imperfect recall; a new player runs each memory state each period. Players act as if maximizing expected payoffs in a common finite action decision problem. I character...
-
作者：Boppart, Timo
作者单位：Stockholm University; University of Zurich
摘要：U.S. data reveal three facts: (1) the share of goods in total expenditure declines at a constant rate over time, (2) the price of goods relative to services declines at a constant rate over time, and (3) poor households spend a larger fraction of their budget on goods than do rich households. I provide a macroeconomic model with non-Gorman preferences that rationalizes these facts, along with the aggregate Kaldor facts. The model is parsimonious and admits an analytical solution. Its functiona...
-
作者：Heckman, James J.
-
作者：Sun, Yixiao
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：This paper develops the fixed-smoothing asymptotics in a two-step generalized method of moments (GMM) framework. Under this type of asymptotics, the weighting matrix in the second-step GMM criterion function converges weakly to a random matrix and the two-step GMM estimator is asymptotically mixed normal. Nevertheless, the Wald statistic, the GMM criterion function statistic, and the Lagrange multiplier statistic remain asymptotically pivotal. It is shown that critical values from the fixed-sm...
-
作者：Allen, Treb
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：It is costly to learn about market conditions elsewhere, especially in developing countries. This paper examines how such information frictions affect trade. Using data on regional agricultural trade in the Philippines, I first document a number of observed patterns in trade flows and prices that suggest the presence of information frictions. I then incorporate information frictions into a perfect competition trade model by embedding a process whereby heterogeneous producers engage in a costly...
-
作者：Oprea, Ryan
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
摘要：Subjects in a laboratory experiment withdraw earnings from a cash reserve evolving according to an arithmetic Brownian motion in near-continuous time. Aggressive withdrawal policies expose subjects to risk of bankruptcy, but the policy that maximizes expected earnings need not maximize the odds of survival. When profit maximization is consistent with high rates of survival (HS parameters), subjects adjust decisively towards the optimum. When survival and profit maximization are sharply at odds...
