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作者：Brandl, Florian; Brandt, Felix; Seedig, Hans Georg
作者单位：Technical University of Munich
摘要：Two fundamental axioms in social choice theory are consistency with respect to a variable electorate and consistency with respect to components of similar alternatives. In the context of traditional non-probabilistic social choice, these axioms are incompatible with each other. We show that in the context of probabilistic social choice, these axioms uniquely characterize a function proposed by Fishburn (1984). Fishburn's function returns so-called maximal lotteries, that is, lotteries that cor...
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作者：Epstein, Larry G.; Kaido, Hiroaki; Seo, Kyoungwon
作者单位：Boston University; Seoul National University (SNU)
摘要：Call an economic model incomplete if it does not generate a probabilistic prediction even given knowledge of all parameter values. We propose a method of inference about unknown parameters for such models that is robust to heterogeneity and dependence of unknown form. The key is a Central Limit Theorem for belief functions; robust confidence regions are then constructed in a fashion paralleling the classical approach. Monte Carlo simulations support tractability of the method and demonstrate i...
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作者：Gavazza, Alessandro
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：I estimate a search-and-bargaining model of a decentralized market to quantify the effects of trading frictions on asset allocations, asset prices, and welfare, and to quantify the effects of intermediaries that facilitate trade. Using business-aircraft data, I find that, relative to the Walrasian benchmark, 18.3 percent of the assets are misallocated; prices are 19.2 percent lower; and the aggregate welfare losses equal 23.9 percent. Dealers play an important role in reducing trading friction...
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作者：Weinstein, Jonathan
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：We study families of normal-form games with fixed preferences over pure action profiles but varied preferences over lotteries. That is, we subject players' utilities to monotone but nonlinear transformations and examine changes in the rationalizable set and set of equilibria. Among our results: The rationalizable set always grows under concave transformations (risk aversion) and shrinks under convex transformations (risk love). The rationalizable set reaches an upper bound under extreme risk a...
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作者：Battigalli, P.; Cerreia-Vioglio, S.; Maccheroni, F.; Marinacci, M.
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：We consider a decision maker who ranks actions according to the smooth ambiguity criterion of Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji (2005). An action is justifiable if it is a best reply to some belief over probabilistic models. We show that higher ambiguity aversion expands the set of justifiable actions. A similar result holds for risk aversion. Our results follow from a generalization of the duality lemma of Wald (1949) and Pearce (1984).
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作者：[Anonymous]
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作者：LaFave, Daniel; Thomas, Duncan
作者单位：Colby College; Duke University
摘要：The farm household model has played a central role in improving the understanding of small-scale agricultural households and non-farm enterprises. Under the assumptions that all current and future markets exist and that farmers treat all prices as given, the model simplifies households' simultaneous production and consumption decisions into a recursive form in which production can be treated as independent of preferences of household members. These assumptions, which are the foundation of a la...
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作者：Armstrong, Timothy B.
作者单位：Yale University; Yale University
摘要：IO economists often estimate demand for differentiated products using data sets with a small number of large markets. This paper addresses the question of consistency and asymptotic distributions of instrumental variables estimates as the number of products increases in some commonly used models of demand under conditions on economic primitives. I show that, in a Bertrand-Nash equilibrium, product characteristics lose their identifying power as price instruments in the limit in certain cases, ...
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作者：Farhi, Emmanuel; Werning, Ivan
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We propose a theory of monetary policy and macroprudential interventions in financial markets. We focus on economies with nominal rigidities in goods and labor markets and subject to constraints on monetary policy, such as the zero lower bound or fixed exchange rates. We identify an aggregate demand externality that can be corrected by macroprudential interventions in financial markets. Ex post, the distribution of wealth across agents affects aggregate demand and output. Ex ante, however, the...
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作者：Blundell, Richard; Costa Dias, Monica; Meghir, Costas; Shaw, Jonathan
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Universidade do Porto; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We estimate a dynamic model of employment, human capital accumulationincluding education, and savings for women in the United Kingdom, exploiting tax and benefit reforms, and use it to analyze the effects of welfare policy. We find substantial elasticities for labor supply and particularly for lone mothers. Returns to experience, which are important in determining the longer-term effects of policy, increase with education, but experience mainly accumulates when in full-time employment. Tax cre...
