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作者：Schennach, Susanne M.
作者单位：Brown University
摘要：Many time series exhibit long memory: Their autocorrelation function decays slowly with lag. This behavior has traditionally been modeled via unit roots or fractional Brownian motion and explained via aggregation of heterogeneous processes, nonlinearity, learning dynamics, regime switching, or structural breaks. This paper identifies a different and complementary mechanism for long-memory generation by showing that it can naturally arise when a large number of simple linear homogeneous economi...
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作者：Miller, Joshua B.; Sanjurjo, Adam
作者单位：Universitat d'Alacant
摘要：We prove that a subtle but substantial bias exists in a common measure of the conditional dependence of present outcomes on streaks of past outcomes in sequential data. The magnitude of this streak selection bias generally decreases as the sequence gets longer, but increases in streak length, and remains substantial for a range of sequence lengths often used in empirical work. We observe that the canonical study in the influential hot hand fallacy literature, along with replications, are vulne...
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作者：Fudenberg, Drew
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作者：Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Mahoney, Neale
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Chicago
摘要：We study the design of provider incentives in the post-acute care setting-a high-stakes but under-studied segment of the healthcare system. We focus on long-term care hospitals (LTCHs) and the large (approximately $13,500) jump in Medicare payments they receive when a patient's stay reaches a threshold number of days. Discharges increase substantially after the threshold, with the marginal discharged patient in relatively better health. Despite the large financial incentives and behavioral res...
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作者：Attanasio, Orazio; Levell, Peter; Low, Hamish; Sanchez-Marcos, Virginia
作者单位：University of London; University College London; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oxford; Universidad de Cantabria
摘要：We show that there is substantial heterogeneity in women's labor supply elasticities at the micro level and highlight the implications for aggregate behavior. We consider both intertemporal and intratemporal choices, and identify intensive and extensive responses in a consistent life-cycle framework, using US CEX data. Heterogeneity is due to observables, such as age, wealth, hours worked, and the wage level, as well as to unobservable tastes for leisure: the median Marshallian elasticity for ...
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作者：Lee, Sokbae; Salanie, Bernard
作者单位：Columbia University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Multivalued treatment models have typically been studied under restrictive assumptions: ordered choice, and more recently, unordered monotonicity. We show how treatment effects can be identified in a more general class of models that allows for multidimensional unobserved heterogeneity. Our results rely on two main assumptions: treatment assignment must be a measurable function of threshold-crossing rules, and enough continuous instruments must be available. We illustrate our approach for seve...
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作者：Chernozhukov, Victor; Fernandez-Val, Ivan; Luo, Ye
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Hong Kong
摘要：The partial (ceteris paribus) effects of interest in nonlinear and interactive linear models are heterogeneous as they can vary dramatically with the underlying observed or unobserved covariates. Despite the apparent importance of heterogeneity, a common practice in modern empirical work is to largely ignore it by reporting average partial effects (or, at best, average effects for some groups). While average effects provide very convenient scalar summaries of typical effects, by definition the...
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作者：Dell, Melissa; Lane, Nathan; Querubin, Pablo
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Monash University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); New York University
摘要：This study examines how the historical state conditions long-run development, using Vietnam as a laboratory. Northern Vietnam (Dai Viet) was ruled by a strong, centralized state in which the village was the fundamental administrative unit. Southern Vietnam was a peripheral tributary of the Khmer (Cambodian) Empire, which followed a patron-client model with more informal, personalized power relations and no village intermediation. Using a regression discontinuity design, the study shows that ar...
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作者：Chen, Xiaohong; Christensen, Timothy M.; Tamer, Elie
作者单位：Yale University; New York University; Harvard University
摘要：It is generally difficult to know whether the parameters in nonlinear econometric models are point-identified. We provide computationally attractive procedures to construct confidence sets (CSs) for identified sets of the full parameter vector and of subvectors in models defined through a likelihood or a vector of moment equalities or inequalities. The CSs are based on level sets of optimal criterion functions (such as likelihoods, optimally-weighted or continuously-updated GMM criterions). Th...
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作者：Duflo, Esther; Greenstone, Michael; Pande, Rohini; Ryan, Nicholas
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Chicago; Harvard University; Yale University
摘要：High pollution persists in many developing countries despite strict environmental rules. We use a field experiment and a structural model to study how plant emission standards are enforced. In collaboration with an Indian environmental regulator, we experimentally doubled the rate of inspection for treatment plants and required that the extra inspections be assigned randomly. We find that treatment plants only slightly increased compliance. We hypothesize that this weak effect is due to poor t...
