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作者：Angeletos, George-Marios; Collard, Fabrice; Dellas, Harris
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; University of Bern
摘要：We develop a tractable method for augmenting macroeconomic models with autonomous variation in higher-order beliefs. We use this to accommodate a certain type of waves of optimism and pessimism that can be interpreted as the product of frictional coordination and, unlike the one featured in the news literature, regards the short-term economic outlook rather than the medium- to long-run prospects. We show that this enrichment provides a parsimonious explanation of salient features of the data; ...
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作者：Basu, Susanto; Bundick, Brent
作者单位：Boston College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City
摘要：de Groot, Richter, and Throckmorton, 2018 argue that the model in Basu and Bundick, 2017 can match the empirical evidence only because the model assumes an asymptote in the economy's response to an uncertainty shock. In this Reply, we provide new results showing that our model's ability to match the data does not rely either on assuming preferences that imply an asymptote nor on a particular value of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. We demonstrate that shifting to preferences that...
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作者：de Paula, Aureo; Richards-Shubik, Seth; Tamer, Elie
作者单位：University of London; University College London; Lehigh University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
摘要：This paper provides a framework for identifying preferences in a large network where links are pairwise stable. Network formation models present difficulties for identification, especially when links can be interdependent, for example, when indirect connections matter. We show how one can use the observed proportions of various local network structures to learn about the underlying preference parameters. The key assumption for our approach restricts individuals to have bounded degree in equili...
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作者：Grossman, Gene M.; Helpman, Elhanan
作者单位：Princeton University; Harvard University; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR)
摘要：We introduce firm and worker heterogeneity into a model of innovation-driven endogenous growth. Individuals who differ in ability sort into either a research activity or a manufacturing sector. Research projects generate new varieties of a differentiated product. Projects differ in quality and the resulting technologies differ in productivity. In both sectors, there is a complementarity between firm quality and worker ability. We study the co-determination of growth and income inequality in bo...
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作者：Chernozhukov, Victor; Fernandez-Val, Ivan; Luo, Ye
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Hong Kong
摘要：The partial (ceteris paribus) effects of interest in nonlinear and interactive linear models are heterogeneous as they can vary dramatically with the underlying observed or unobserved covariates. Despite the apparent importance of heterogeneity, a common practice in modern empirical work is to largely ignore it by reporting average partial effects (or, at best, average effects for some groups). While average effects provide very convenient scalar summaries of typical effects, by definition the...
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作者：Dell, Melissa; Lane, Nathan; Querubin, Pablo
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Monash University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); New York University
摘要：This study examines how the historical state conditions long-run development, using Vietnam as a laboratory. Northern Vietnam (Dai Viet) was ruled by a strong, centralized state in which the village was the fundamental administrative unit. Southern Vietnam was a peripheral tributary of the Khmer (Cambodian) Empire, which followed a patron-client model with more informal, personalized power relations and no village intermediation. Using a regression discontinuity design, the study shows that ar...
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作者：Pagnotta, Emiliano S.; Philippon, Thomas
作者单位：Imperial College London; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We analyze trading speed and fragmentation in asset markets. In our model, trading venues make technological investments and compete for investors who choose where and how much to trade. Faster venues charge higher fees and attract speed-sensitive investors. Competition among venues increases investor participation, trading volume, and allocative efficiency, but entry and fragmentation can be excessive, and speeds are generically inefficient. Regulations that protect transaction prices (e.g., ...
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作者：Abbring, Jaap H.; Campbell, Jeffrey R.; Tilly, Jan; Yang, Nan
作者单位：Tilburg University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Tilburg University; University of Pennsylvania; National University of Singapore; National University of Singapore
摘要：This paper develops a simple model of firm entry, competition, and exit in oligopolistic markets. It features toughness of competition, sunk entry costs, and market-level demand and cost shocks, but assumes that firms' expected payoffs are identical when entry and survival decisions are made. We prove that this model has an essentially unique symmetric Markov-perfect equilibrium, and we provide an algorithm for its computation. Because this algorithm only requires finding the fixed points of a...
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作者：Arias, Jonas E.; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Waggoner, Daniel F.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：In this paper, we develop algorithms to independently draw from a family of conjugate posterior distributions over the structural parameterization when sign and zero restrictions are used to identify structural vector autoregressions (SVARs). We call this family of conjugate posteriors normal-generalized-normal. Our algorithms draw from a conjugate uniform-normal-inverse-Wishart posterior over the orthogonal reduced-form parameterization and transform the draws into the structural parameteriza...
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作者：Chen, Xiaohong; Christensen, Timothy M.; Tamer, Elie
作者单位：Yale University; New York University; Harvard University
摘要：It is generally difficult to know whether the parameters in nonlinear econometric models are point-identified. We provide computationally attractive procedures to construct confidence sets (CSs) for identified sets of the full parameter vector and of subvectors in models defined through a likelihood or a vector of moment equalities or inequalities. The CSs are based on level sets of optimal criterion functions (such as likelihoods, optimally-weighted or continuously-updated GMM criterions). Th...
