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作者：McCracken, Michael W.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：We investigate claims made in Giacomini and White (2006) and Diebold (2015) regarding the asymptotic normality of a test of equal predictive ability. A counterexample is provided in which, instead, the test statistic diverges with probability 1 under the null.
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作者：De Chaisemartin, Clement; Behaghel, Luc
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Paris School of Economics; INRAE
摘要：Oversubscribed treatments are often allocated using randomized waiting lists. Applicants are ranked randomly, and treatment offers are made following that ranking until all seats are filled. To estimate causal effects, researchers often compare applicants getting and not getting an offer. We show that those two groups are not statistically comparable. Therefore, the estimator arising from that comparison is inconsistent when the number of waitlists goes to infinity. We propose a new estimator,...
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作者：Faingold, Eduardo
作者单位：Insper
摘要：Equilibrium payoff bounds from reputation effects are derived for repeated games with imperfect public monitoring in which a long-run player interacts frequently with a population of short-run players and the monitoring technology scales with the length of the period of interaction. The bounds depend on the monitoring technology through theflow of information, a measure of signal informativeness per unit of time based on relative entropy. Examples are shown where, under complete information, t...
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作者：Besley, Timothy
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This paper explores the role of civic culture in expanding fiscal capacity by developing a model based on reciprocal obligations: citizens pay their taxes and the state provides public goods. Civic culture evolves over time according to the relative payoff of civic-minded and materialist citizens. A strong civic culture manifests itself as high tax revenues sustained by high levels of voluntary tax compliance and provision of public goods. This captures the idea of government as a reciprocal s...
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作者：Besley, Timothy
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
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作者：Enikolopov, Ruben; Makarin, Alexey; Petrova, Maria
作者单位：New Economic School; Pompeu Fabra University; ICREA; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Do new communication technologies, such as social media, alleviate the collective action problem? This paper provides evidence that penetration of VK, the dominant Russian online social network, led to more protest activity during a wave of protests in Russia in 2011. As a source of exogenous variation in network penetration, we use the information on the city of origin of the students who studied with the founder of VK, controlling for the city of origin of the students who studied at the sam...
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作者：Abreu, Dilip; Brooks, Benjamin; Sannikov, Yuliy
作者单位：New York University; University of Chicago; Stanford University
摘要：We study the pure-strategy subgame-perfect Nash equilibria of stochastic games with perfect monitoring, geometric discounting, and public randomization. We develop novel algorithms for computing equilibrium payoffs, in which we combine policy iteration when incentive constraints are slack with value iteration when incentive constraints bind. We also provide software implementations of our algorithms. Preliminary simulations indicate that they are significantly more efficient than existing meth...
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作者：Papaioannou, Elias
作者单位：University of London; London Business School; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：In this note, I discuss avenues for future research stemming from Besley's [this issue] theoretical approach on the interconnections between civicness, institutions, and state-fiscal capacity. First, I lay down some ideas on how one could extend the framework to model fragility traps that characterize many low-income countries and study issues related to nation-building, conflict, and heterogeneity across space and ethnic lines in the provision of public goods. Second, I discuss the relevance ...
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作者：Fajgelbaum, Pablo D.; Schaal, Edouard
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We study optimal transport networks in spatial equilibrium. We develop a framework consisting of a neoclassical trade model with labor mobility in which locations are arranged on a graph. Goods must be shipped through linked locations, and transport costs depend on congestion and on the infrastructure in each link, giving rise to an optimal transport problem in general equilibrium. The optimal transport network is the solution to a social planner's problem of building infrastructure in each li...
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作者：Bowles, Samuel
作者单位：The Santa Fe Institute
摘要：Treating civic preferences as endogenous and government policies and tax capacities as both an influence on and a consequence of their evolution is an important new strand of thinking to which Besley has contributed. I ask: Does his model provide a convincing explanation of the way that civic cultures and the expansion of the state evolved as a matter of historical fact? And I suggest a number of alternative modeling approaches that both would recognize that policy makers take account of the e...
