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作者：Allen, Franklin; Barlevy, Gadi; Gale, Douglas
作者单位：Imperial College London; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; New York University
摘要：Gall (2014) showed that a monetary policy rule that raises rates when bubbles exceed some steady-state benchmark can paradoxically lead to larger deviations from steady state. Nevertheless, this comment shows that a central bank can always dampen a bubble by setting a higher-than-expected rate, although it may have to raise the rate aggressively. This is a different point from the Miao, Shen, and Wang (2019) comment on Gall (2014). They showed that when the central bank targets a different ste...
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作者：Hausman, Catherine
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Accelerated investment in electricity transmission could reduce total costs and enhance renewable integration. I document static allocative inefficiencies induced by incomplete market integration in 2 major US markets; these have risen over time and totaled $2 billion in 2022. I also argue that estimating firm-level impacts is important, as incumbents may have the power to block new lines and other reforms. I show that 4 firms would have experienced a collective $1.3 billion drop in net revenu...
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作者：Kang, Zi Yang; Vasserman, Shoshana
作者单位：University of Toronto; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Economists routinely make functional form assumptions on demand curves to derive welfare conclusions. How sensitive are these conclusions to such assumptions? In this paper, we develop robustness measures that quantify the extent to which the true demand curve must deviate from common functional form assumptions in order to overturn a welfare conclusion. We parametrize this variability in terms of the gradient and curvature of the demand curve. By leveraging tools from information design, we s...
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作者：Martin, Julien; Pesendorfer, Martin; Shannon, Jack
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Common values auction models, where bidder decisions depend on noisy signals of common values, provide predictions about Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE) outcomes. In settings where these common values can be estimated, these predictions can be tested. We propose a series of tests, robust to assumptions about the signal structure, to determine whether the observed data could have been generated by a Bayesian Nash equilibrium. In the setting of oil and gas lease auctions in New Mexico, we find e...
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作者：Adukia, Anjali; Feigenberg, Benjamin; Momeni, Fatemeh
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; University of Chicago
摘要：School districts historically approached conflict resolution from the perspective that suspending disruptive students was necessary to protect their classmates, even if this caused harm to perceived offenders. Restorative practices (RP)-focusing on reparation, accountability, and shared ownership of disciplinary justice-are designed to address undesirable behavior without harming students. We study Chicago Public Schools' adoption of RP and find that suspensions and arrests decreased, driven b...
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作者：Fong, Meng-Jhang; Lin, Po-Hsuan; Palfrey, Thomas R.
作者单位：Max Planck Society; University of Virginia; California Institute of Technology
摘要：This paper develops a framework to extend the strategic form analysis of cursed equilibrium (CE) developed by Eyster and Rabin (2005) to multistage games. The approach uses behavioral strategies rather than normal form mixed strategies and imposes sequential rationality. We define and characterize properties of cursed sequential equilibrium (CSE) and apply it to four canonical economic applications: signaling games, reputation building, durable goods monopoly, and the dirty faces game. These a...
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作者：Allen, Franklin; Barlevy, Gadi; Gale, Douglas
作者单位：Imperial College London; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; New York University
摘要：Gall (2014) showed that a monetary policy rule that raises rates when bubbles exceed some steady-state benchmark can paradoxically lead to larger deviations from steady state. Nevertheless, this comment shows that a central bank can always dampen a bubble by setting a higher-than-expected rate, although it may have to raise the rate aggressively. This is a different point from the Miao, Shen, and Wang (2019) comment on Gall (2014). They showed that when the central bank targets a different ste...
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作者：Di Tella, Rafael; Kotti, Randy; Le Pennec, Caroline; Pons, Vincent
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; ENSAE Paris; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study changes in political discourse during campaigns, using a novel dataset of candidate websites for US House elections, 2002-2016, and manifestos for French parliamentary and local elections, 1958-2022. We find that candidates move to the center in ideology and rhetorical complexity between the first round (or primary) and the second round (or general election). This convergence reflects candidates' strategic adjustment to their opponents, as predicted by Downsian competition: Using an R...
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作者：Dupas, Pascaline; Jayachandran, Seema; Lleras-Muney, Adriana; Rossi, Pauline
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：We conducted a randomized trial among 14,545 households in rural Burkina Faso to test the oft-cited hypothesis that limited access to contraception is an important driver of high fertility rates in West Africa. We do not find support for this hypothesis. Women who were given free access to modern contraception for three years did not have lower birth rates; we can reject even modest effects. We cross-randomized additional interventions to address inefficiencies that might depress demand for fr...
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作者：Lachowska, Marta; Sorkin, Isaac; Woodbury, Stephen A.
作者单位：W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Michigan State University
摘要：We quantify the employer's role in unemployment insurance (UI) take-up. Employer effects on claiming and appeals are substantial, and those effects are negatively correlated, consistent with appeals deterring claims. Low-wage workers are less likely to claim and more likely to have their claims appealed than median-wage workers. Employer effects help explain these income gradients, so equalizing employer effects on claiming would increase the progressivity of UI. Finally, the main source of ta...
