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作者：Brooks, Benjamin; Du, Songzi
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：We study the design of optimal mechanisms when the designer is uncertain both about the form of information held by the agents and also about which equilibrium will be played. The guarantee of a mechanism is its worst performance across all information structures and equilibria. The potential of an information structure is its best performance across all mechanisms and equilibria. We formulate a pair of linear programs, one of which is a lower bound on the maximum guarantee across all mechanis...
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作者：Mahler, Lukas; Yum, Minchul
作者单位：KU Leuven; Virginia Commonwealth University
摘要：We document significant gaps in wealth across health status over the life cycle in Germany-a country with a universal healthcare system and negligible out-of-pocket medical expenses. To investigate the underlying sources of these wealth-health gaps, we build a heterogeneous-agent life-cycle model in which health and wealth evolve endogenously. In the model, agents exert efforts to lead a healthy lifestyle, which helps maintain good health status in the future. Effort choices, or lifestyle beha...
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作者：Holden, Tom D.
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：Central banks wish to avoid self-fulfilling fluctuations. Interest rate rules with a unit response to real rates achieve this under the weakest possible assumptions about the behavior of households and firms. They are robust to household heterogeneity, hand-to-mouth consumers, non-rational household or firm expectations, active fiscal policy, and to any form of intertemporal or nominal-real links. They are easy to employ in practice, using inflation-protected bonds to infer real rates. With a ...
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作者：Kopytov, Alexandr; Mishra, Bineet; Nimark, Kristoffer; Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu
作者单位：University of Rochester; Cornell University
摘要：Supply chain disturbances can lead to substantial increases in production costs. To mitigate these risks, firms may take steps to reduce their reliance on volatile suppliers. We construct a model of endogenous network formation to investigate how these decisions affect the structure of the production network and the level and volatility of macroeconomic aggregates. When uncertainty increases in the model, producers prefer to purchase from more stable suppliers, even though they might sell at h...
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作者：Muller, Ulrich K.; Watson, Mark W.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：This paper proposes a model for, and investigates the consequences of, strong spatial dependence in economic variables. Our findings echo those of the corresponding unit root time series literature: Spatial unit root processes induce spuriously significant regression results, even with clustered standard errors or spatial HAC corrections. We develop large-sample valid unit root and stationarity tests that can detect such strong spatial dependence. Finally, we use simulations to study strategie...
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作者：Cantoni, Davide; Mohr, Cathrin; Weigand, Matthias
作者单位：University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Bonn; Harvard University
摘要：This paper studies the role of fiscal capacity in European state consolidation. Our analysis is organized around novel data on the territories and cities of the Holy Roman Empire in the early modern period. Territories implementing an early fiscal reform were more likely to survive, increased in size, and achieved a more compact extent. We provide evidence for the causal interpretation of these results and show key mechanisms: revenues, military investments, and marriage success. The impositio...
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作者：Cervellati, Matteo; Gulino, Giorgio; Roberti, Paolo
作者单位：University of Bologna; University of Rome Tor Vergata; Free University of Bozen-Bolzano
摘要：We exploit a natural experiment involving a randomization of votes across parties within coalitions in all local elections in Italy for over a decade. A lottery on the position of party symbols in the ballot papers allows estimating the causal effect of increasing votes to parties for coalition policies. A non-marginal random boost of votes shifts budgetary spending towards the treated party's platform, but only for issues that are salient in that party's political manifesto. We study the chai...
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作者：Chang, Haoge; Middleton, Joel A.; Aronow, P. M.
作者单位：Columbia University; Yale University; Yale University; Yale University; Yale University; Yale University
摘要：Freedman (2008a,b) showed that the linear regression estimator is biased for the analysis of randomized controlled trials under the randomization model. Under Freedman's assumptions, we derive exact closed-form bias corrections for the linear regression estimator. We show that the limiting distribution of the bias corrected estimator is identical to the uncorrected estimator. Taken together with results from Lin (2013), our results show that Freedman's theoretical arguments against the use of ...
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作者：Giroud, Xavier; Lenzu, Simone; Maingi, Quinn; Mueller, Holger
作者单位：Columbia University; University of Cambridge; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; New York University; University of Southern California
摘要：The gains from agglomeration economies are believed to be highly localized. Using confidential Census plant-level data, we show that large industrial plant openings raise the productivity not only of local plants but also of distant plants hundreds of miles away, which belong to large multi-plant, multi-region firms that are exposed to the local productivity spillover through one of their plants. This global productivity spillover does not decay with distance and is stronger if plants are in i...
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作者：Agranov, Marina; Gillen, Benjamin; Persitz, Dotan
作者单位：California Institute of Technology; National Bureau of Economic Research; Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University; Claremont McKenna College; Tel Aviv University
