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作者：Herrnstadt, Evan; Kellogg, Ryan; Lewis, Eric
作者单位：Congressional Budget Office; University of Chicago; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; Bush School of Government & Public Service
摘要：Oil and gas leases between mineral owners and extraction firms typically specify a date by which the firm must either drill a well or lose the lease. These deadlines are known as primary terms. Using data from the Louisiana shale boom, we first show that well drilling is substantially bunched just before the primary term deadline. This bunching is not necessarily surplus-reducing: using an estimated model of firms' drilling and input choices, we show that primary terms can increase total surpl...
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作者：Caplin, Andrew
作者单位：New York University
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作者：Breunig, Christoph; Chen, Xiaohong
作者单位：University of Bonn; Yale University
摘要：We propose a new adaptive hypothesis test for inequality (e.g., monotonicity, convexity) and equality (e.g., parametric, semiparametric) restrictions on a structural function in a nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) model. Our test statistic is based on a modified leave-one-out sample analog of a quadratic distance between the restricted and unrestricted sieve two-stage least squares estimators. We provide computationally simple, data-driven choices of sieve tuning parameters and Bonfe...
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作者：Cantoni, Davide; Mohr, Cathrin; Weigand, Matthias
作者单位：University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Bonn; Harvard University
摘要：This paper studies the role of fiscal capacity in European state consolidation. Our analysis is organized around novel data on the territories and cities of the Holy Roman Empire in the early modern period. Territories implementing an early fiscal reform were more likely to survive, increased in size, and achieved a more compact extent. We provide evidence for the causal interpretation of these results and show key mechanisms: revenues, military investments, and marriage success. The impositio...
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作者：Graham, Bryan S.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Consider a bipartite network where N consumers choose to buy or not to buy M different products. This paper considers the properties of the logit fit of the N x M array of i-buys-j purchase decisions, Y=[Yij]1 <= i <= N,1 <= j <= M, onto a vector of known functions of consumer and product attributes under asymptotic sequences where (i) both N and M grow large, (ii) the average number of products purchased per consumer is finite in the limit, (iii) there exists dependence across elements in the...
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作者：Kartik, Navin; Lee, Sangmok; Liu, Tianhao; Rappoport, Daniel
作者单位：Columbia University; Washington University (WUSTL); University of Chicago
摘要：When does society eventually learn the truth, or take the correct action, via observational learning? In a general model of sequential learning over social networks, we identify a simple condition for learning dubbed excludability. Excludability is a joint property of agents' preferences and their information. We develop two classes of preferences and information that jointly satisfy excludability: (i) for a one-dimensional state, preferences with single-crossing differences and a new informat...
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作者：Basse, Guillaume; Ding, Peng; Feller, Avi; Toulis, Panos
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：Measuring the effect of peers on individuals' outcomes is a challenging problem, in part because individuals often select peers who are similar in both observable and unobservable ways. Group formation experiments avoid this problem by randomly assigning individuals to groups and observing their responses; for example, do first-year students have better grades when they are randomly assigned roommates who have stronger academic backgrounds? In this paper, we propose randomization-based permuta...
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作者：Agarwal, Sumit; Grigsby, John; Hortacsu, Ali; Matvos, Gregor; Seru, Amit; Yao, Vincent
作者单位：National University of Singapore; National University of Singapore; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; Northwestern University; Stanford University; University System of Georgia; Georgia State University; University System of Georgia; Georgia State University
摘要：This paper theoretically and empirically studies the interaction of search and application approval in credit markets. Risky borrowers internalize the probability that their application is rejected and behave as if they had high search costs. Thus, overpayment may be a poor proxy for consumer sophistication since it partly represents rational search in response to rejections. Contrary to standard search models, our model implies (1) endogenous adverse selection through the search and applicati...
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作者：Higgins, Ayden; Jochmans, Koen
作者单位：University of Oxford; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics
摘要：The maximum-likelihood estimator of nonlinear panel data models with fixed effects is asymptotically biased under rectangular-array asymptotics. The literature has devoted substantial effort to devising methods that correct for this bias as a means to salvage standard inferential procedures. The chief purpose of this paper is to show that the (recursive, parametric) bootstrap replicates the asymptotic distribution of the (uncorrected) maximum-likelihood estimator and of the likelihood-ratio st...
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作者：Gomez, Matthieu; Gouin-Bonenfant, Emilien
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：We study the effect of interest rates on wealth inequality. While lower rates decrease the growth rate of rentiers, they also increase the growth rate of entrepreneurs by making it cheaper to raise capital. To understand which effect dominates, we derive a sufficient statistic for the effect of interest rates on the Pareto exponent of the wealth distribution: it depends on the lifetime equity and debt issuance rate of individuals in the right tail of the wealth distribution. We estimate this s...
