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作者：Abel, Andrew B.; Panageas, Stavros
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Government debt can be rolled over forever without primary surpluses in some stochastic economies, including some economies that are dynamically efficient. In an overlapping-generations model with constant growth rate, g, of labor-augmenting productivity, and with shocks to the durability of capital, we show that along a balanced growth path, the maximum sustainable ratio of bonds to capital is attained when the risk-free interest rate, r f, equals g. Furthermore, this maximal ratio maximizes ...
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作者：Bonneton, Nicolas; Sandmann, Christopher
作者单位：Vanderbilt University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This paper studies assortative matching in a non-stationary search-and-matching model with non-transferable payoffs. Non-stationarity entails that the number and characteristics of agents searching evolve endogenously over time. Assortative matching can fail in non-stationary environments under conditions for which Morgan (1995) and Smith (2006) show that it occurs in the steady state. This is due to the risk of worsening match prospects inherent to non-stationary environments. The main contri...
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作者：Chiovelli, Giorgio; Michalopoulos, Stelios; Papaioannou, Elias
作者单位：Universidad de Montevideo; Brown University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; London Business School
摘要：Landmines affect the lives of millions in many conflict-ridden communities long after the end of hostilities. However, there is little research on the role of demining. We examine the economic consequences of landmine removal in Mozambique, the only country to transition from heavily contaminated in 1992 to mine-free in 2015. First, we present the self-assembled georeferenced catalog of areas suspected of contamination, along with a detailed record of demining operations. Second, the event-stu...
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作者：Lau, Morten I.; Yoo, Hong Il
作者单位：Copenhagen Business School; Durham University; Loughborough University; University of Cape Town
摘要：Structural measures of higher order risk attitudes have well-developed foundations in Expected Utility Theory (EUT), but little is known about their empirical magnitudes. We introduce a novel experimental design and a companion econometric model that allows us to structurally estimate indices of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance under EUT without imposing restrictions on their interdependence. We find that indices of absolute risk aversion, prudence, and temperance exhibit distinct patte...
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作者：Iacovone, Leonardo; McKenzie, David; Meager, Rachael
作者单位：The World Bank; The World Bank; University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：Policymakers often test expensive new programs on relatively small samples. Formally incorporating informative Bayesian priors into impact evaluation offers the promise to learn more from these experiments. We evaluate a Colombian program for 200 firms which aimed to increase exporting. Priors were elicited from academics, policymakers, and firms. Contrary to these priors, frequentist estimation cannot reject null effects in 2019, and finds some negative impacts in 2020. For binary outcomes li...
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作者：Gai, Qingen; Guo, Naijia; Li, Bingjing; Shi, Qinghua; Zhu, Xiaodong
作者单位：Shanghai Jiao Tong University; University of Hong Kong
摘要：We exploit the implementation of a rural pension policy in China to estimate the average rural-to-urban migration cost for workers affected by the policy and the average underlying sectoral productivity difference. Our estimates, based on a large panel data set, reveal significant migration costs and substantial sectoral productivity differences, with sorting playing a minor role in accounting for sectoral labor income gaps. We construct and structurally estimate a general equilibrium househol...
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作者：Farrokhi, Farid; Lashkaripour, Ahmad
作者单位：Boston College; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington
摘要：Trade policy is often cast as a solution to the free-riding problem in international climate agreements. This paper examines the extent to which trade policy can deliver on this promise. We incorporate global supply chains of carbon and climate externalities into a multi-country, multi-industry general equilibrium trade model. By deriving theoretical formulas for optimal carbon and border taxes, we quantify the maximum efficacy of two trade policy solutions to the free-riding problem. Adding o...
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作者：Spiess, Jann
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：Econometric analysis typically focuses on the statistical properties of fixed estimators and ignores researcher choices. In this article, I instead approach the analysis of experimental data as a mechanism-design problem that acknowledges that researchers choose between estimators, sometimes based on the data and often according to their own preferences. Specifically, I focus on covariate adjustments, which can increase the precision of a treatment-effect estimate, but open the door to bias wh...
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作者：Spady, Richard H.; Stouli, Sami
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; University of Oxford; University of Bristol; University of Melbourne
摘要：We propose flexible Gaussian representations for conditional cumulative distribution functions and give a concave likelihood criterion for their estimation. Optimal representations satisfy the monotonicity property of conditional cumulative distribution functions, including in finite samples and under general misspecification. We use these representations to provide a unified framework for the flexible maximum likelihood estimation of conditional density, cumulative distribution, and quantile ...
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作者：Beraja, Martin; Hurst, Erik; Ospina, Juan
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Chicago; Banco de la Republica Colombia
