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作者：Dustmann, Christian; Lindner, Attila; Schonberg, Uta; Umkehrer, Matthias; vom Berge, Philipp
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of London; University College London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; HUN-REN; HUN-REN Centre for Economic & Regional Studies; University of London; University College London; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：We investigate the wage, employment, and reallocation effects of the introduction of a nationwide minimum wage in Germany that affected 15% of all employees. Based on identification designs that exploit variation in exposure across individuals and local areas, we find that the minimum wage raised wages but did not lower employment. It also led to the reallocation of low-wage workers from smaller to larger, from lower- to higher-paying, and from less to more productive establishments. This work...
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作者：Akcigit, Ufuk; Grigsby, John; Nicholas, Tom; Stantcheva, Stefanie
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Northwestern University; Harvard University; Harvard University
摘要：This article studies the effect of corporate and personal taxes on innovation in the United States over the twentieth century. We build a panel of the universe of inventors who patented since 1920, and a historical state-level corporate tax database with corporate tax rates and tax base information, which we link to existing data on state-level personal income taxes and other economic outcomes. Our analysis focuses on the effect of personal and corporate income taxes on individual inventors (t...
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作者：Feigenberg, Benjamin; Miller, Conrad
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：During traffic stops, police search black and Hispanic motorists more than twice as often as white motorists, yet those searches are no more likely to yield contraband. We ask whether equalizing search rates by motorist race would reduce contraband yield. We use unique administrative data from Texas to isolate variation in search behavior across and within highway patrol troopers and find that search rates are unrelated to the proportion of searches that yield contraband. We find that troopers...
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作者：Gray-Lobe, Guthrie; Pathak, Parag A.; Walters, Christopher R.
作者单位：University of Chicago; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We use admissions lotteries to estimate the effects of large-scale public preschool in Boston on college-going, college preparation, standardized test scores, and behavioral outcomes. Preschool enrollment boosts college attendance as well as SAT test taking and high school graduation. Preschool also decreases high school disciplinary measures including juvenile incarceration, but has no detectable effect on state achievement test scores. An analysis of subgroups shows that effects on college e...
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作者：Grosjean, Pauline; Masera, Federico; Yousaf, Hasin
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Can political rallies affect the behavior of law enforcement officers toward racial minorities? Using data from 35 million traffic stops, we show that the probability that a stopped driver is Black increases by 5.74% after a Trump rally during his 2015-2016 campaign. The effect is immediate, specific to Black drivers, lasts for up to 60 days after the rally, and is not justified by changes in driver behavior. The effects are significantly larger among law enforcement officers whose estimated r...
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作者：Bordalo, Pedro; Conlon, John J.; Gennaioli, Nicola; Kwon, Spencer Y.; Shleifer, Andrei
作者单位：University of Oxford; Harvard University; Bocconi University
摘要：In many economic decisions, people estimate probabilities, such as the likelihood that a risk materializes or that a job applicant will be a productive employee, by retrieving experiences from memory. We model this process based on two established regularities of selective recall: similarity and interference. We show that the similarity structure of a hypothesis and the way it is described (not just its objective probability) shape the recall of experiences and thus probability assessments. Th...
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作者：Abadie, Alberto; Athey, Susan; Imbens, Guido W.; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Michigan State University
摘要：Clustered standard errors, with clusters defined by factors such as geography, are widespread in empirical research in economics and many other disciplines. Formally, clustered standard errors adjust for the correlations induced by sampling the outcome variable from a data-generating process with unobserved cluster-level components. However, the standard econometric framework for clustering leaves important questions unanswered: (i) Why do we adjust standard errors for clustering in some ways ...
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作者：Bianchi, Javier; Mondragon, Jorge
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne
摘要：This article shows that the inability to use monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization leaves a government more vulnerable to a rollover crisis. We study a sovereign default model with self-fulfilling rollover crises, foreign currency debt, and nominal rigidities. When the government lacks monetary independence, lenders anticipate that the government would face a severe recession in the event of a liquidity crisis and are therefore more prone to run on government bonds. In a quantitative...
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作者：Chalendard, Cyril; Fernandes, Ana M.; Raballand, Gael; Rijkers, Bob
作者单位：The World Bank; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite Clermont Auvergne (UCA); Utrecht University
摘要：This article presents a new methodology to detect corruption in customs and applies it to Madagascar's main port. Manipulation of assignment of import declarations to inspectors is identified by measuring deviations from random assignment prescribed by official rules. Deviant declarations are more at risk of tax evasion, yet less likely to be deemed fraudulent by inspectors, who also clear them faster. An intervention in which inspector assignment was delegated to a third party validates our a...
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作者：Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Ji, Yunan; Mahoney, Neale
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Harvard University
摘要：Government programs are often offered on an optional basis to market participants. We explore the economics of such voluntary regulation in the context of a Medicare payment reform, in which one medical provider receives a single, predetermined payment for a sequence of related healthcare services, instead of separate service-specific payments. This bundled payment program was originally implemented as a five-year randomized trial, with mandatory participation by hospitals assigned to the new ...
