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作者：Auclert, Adrien; Rigato, Rodolfo; Rognlie, Matthew; Straub, Ludwig
作者单位：Stanford University; European Central Bank; Northwestern University; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We show that in a broad class of menu cost models, the first-order dynamics of aggregate inflation in response to arbitrary shocks to aggregate costs are nearly the same as in Calvo models with suitably chosen Calvo adjustment frequencies. We first prove that the canonical menu cost model is first-order equivalent to a mixture of two time-dependent models, which reflect the extensive and intensive margins of price adjustment. We then show numerically that in any plausible parameterization, thi...
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作者：Maxted, Peter; Laibson, David; Moll, Benjamin
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Harvard University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We study the effect of monetary and fiscal policy in a heterogeneous-agent model where households have present-biased time preferences and naive beliefs. The model features a liquid asset and illiquid home equity, which households can use as collateral for borrowing. Because present bias substantially increases households' marginal propensity to consume (MPC), present bias increases the effect of fiscal policy. Present bias also amplifies the effect of monetary policy, but at the same time, sl...
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作者：Bhatt, Monica P.; Heller, Sara B.; Kapustin, Max; Bertrand, Marianne; Blattman, Christopher
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Chicago; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Cornell University; University of Chicago; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Chicago
摘要：Gun violence is the most pressing public safety problem in U.S. cities. We report results from a randomized controlled trial (N = 2,456) of a community-researcher partnership called the Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) Chicago. The program offered an 18-month job alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and other social support. Both algorithmic and human referral methods identified men with strikingly high scope for gun violence reduction: for every 100 people in the control ...
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作者：Mitrunen, Matti
作者单位：University of Helsinki
摘要：From 1944 to 1952, largely agrarian Finland had to export, on average, 4% of its yearly GDP in industrial products to the Soviet Union as war reparations. To meet the reparation demands, the Finnish state needed to provide extensive temporary support to Soviet-assigned industries with insufficient production capacity. This article documents the long-term effects of this extensive and temporary industrial policy on industrial and local development and on individual outcomes. Using newly digitiz...
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作者：Andrews, Isaiah; Kitagawa, Toru; McCloskey, Adam
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Brown University; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：Policy makers, firms, and researchers often choose among multiple options based on estimates. Sampling error in the estimates used to guide choice leads to a winner's curse, since we are more likely to select a given option precisely when we overestimate its effectiveness. This winner's curse biases our estimates for selected options upward and can invalidate conventional confidence intervals. This article develops estimators and confidence intervals that eliminate this winner's curse. We illu...
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作者：Boning, William C.; Hendren, Nathaniel; Sprung-Keyser, Ben; Stuart, Ellen
作者单位：United States Department of the Treasury; University of Massachusetts System; University of Pennsylvania; University of Sydney
摘要：We estimate the returns to IRS audits of taxpayers across the income distribution. We find an additional $1 spent auditing taxpayers above the 90th income percentile yields more than $12 in revenue, while audits of below-median income taxpayers yield $5. We construct our estimates by drawing from comprehensive internal accounting information and audit-level enforcement logs. We begin by estimating the average initial return to all audits of U.S. taxpayers filing in tax years 2010-2014. On aver...
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作者：Dube, Oeindrila; Macarthur, Sandy Jo; Shah, Anuj K.
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University
摘要：What causes adverse policing outcomes, such as excessive uses of force and unnecessary arrests? Prevailing explanations focus on problematic officers or deficient regulations and oversight. We introduce an overlooked perspective. We suggest that the cognitive demands inherent in policing can undermine officer decision making. Unless officers are prepared for these demands, they may jump to conclusions too quickly without fully considering alternative ways of seeing a situation. This can lead t...
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作者：Prato, Marta
作者单位：Bocconi University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：How does inventors' migration affect international talent allocation, knowledge diffusion, and productivity growth? To answer this question, I build a novel two-country innovation-led endogenous growth model, where heterogeneous inventors produce innovations, learn from others, and make dynamic migration and return decisions. Migrants interact with individuals at origin and destination, diffusing knowledge within and across countries. To quantify this framework, I construct a micro-level data ...
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作者：Payne, Jonathan; Szoke, Balint; Hall, George; Sargent, Thomas J.
作者单位：Princeton University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Brandeis University; New York University; Stanford University
摘要：From a new data set, we infer time series of term structures of yields on U.S. federal bonds during the gold standard era from 1791-1933 and use our estimates to reassess historical narratives about how the United States expanded its fiscal capacity. We show that U.S. debt carried a default risk premium until the end of the nineteenth century, when it started being priced as an alternative safe asset to U.K. debt. During the Civil War, investors expected the United States to return to a gold s...
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作者：Exley, Christine L.; Hauser, Oliver P.; Moore, Molly; Pezzuto, John-Henry
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Exeter; Washington University (WUSTL); University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：While there is a vast (and mixed) literature on gender differences in social preferences, little is known about believed gender differences in social preferences. Using data from 15 studies and 8,979 individuals, we find that women are believed to be more generous and more equality-oriented than men. This believed gender gap is robust across a wide range of contexts that vary in terms of strategic considerations, selfish motives, fairness concepts, and payoffs. Yet this believed gender gap is ...
