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作者：Lane, Nathan
作者单位：University of Oxford; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：I study the effect of industrial policies on industrial development by considering an important episode during the East Asian miracle: South Korea's heavy and chemical industry (HCI) drive, 1973-1979. Based on newly assembled data, I use the introduction and termination of industrial policies to study their effects during and after the intervention period. I reveal that HCI policies promoted the expansion and dynamic comparative advantage of directly targeted industries. Using variation in exp...
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作者：Derenoncourt, Ellora; Weil, David
作者单位：Princeton University; Brandeis University
摘要：Low unionization rates, a falling real federal minimum wage, and outsourcing have hampered wage growth in the low-wage sector in the United States for several decades. In recent years (2014-2023), a number of large private retailers-including some of the largest employers in the United States-have opted to institute or raise company-wide, voluntary minimum wages (VMWs) for their employees. We use anonymized payroll data from a large credit bureau and a major payroll provider to study the effec...
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作者：Andrew, Alison; Adams, Abi
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Oxford
摘要：We develop a new methodology to estimate subjective beliefs from hypothetical-choice data. Our identification approach is based on the novel insight that by varying the amount of information on future realizations of stochastic variables, discrete-choice experiments can identify not only preferences but also subjective beliefs. We formally prove this result in a general setting and apply it to design a strategic survey instrument to measure Rajasthani parents' subjective beliefs over the joint...
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作者：Biasi, Barbara; Lafortune, Julien; Schonholzer, David
作者单位：Yale University; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
摘要：This article identifies which investments in school facilities help students and which are valued by homeowners. Using novel data on school district bonds, test scores, and house prices across 29 U.S. states and a research design based on narrowly decided elections with staggered timing, we find that increased capital spending in schools significantly improves test scores and is efficient on average. However, the effects vary widely depending on the type of project and the characteristics of t...
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作者：Golosov, Mikhail; Krasikov, Ilia
作者单位：University of Chicago; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：We study optimal nonlinear taxation of single and married households. Taxes on couples depend on the earnings of both spouses and are an example of multidimensional tax schedules. We develop novel analytical techniques to study properties of such taxes. We show that the optimal marginal taxes for married individuals are generally lower than for single individuals because resource sharing in couples provides socially valuable redistribution. Under realistic assumptions, the optimal tax rates fo...
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作者：Avataneo, Michelle; Norman, Thomas; Persico, Nicola
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Oxford
摘要：Moral foundations theory is an influential empirical description of moral perception. According to this theory, individuals make moral judgments based on five distinct moral foundations: care, fairness, loyalty, authority, and sanctity. We provide a theory that explores the claimed evolutionary basis for these moral foundations. The theory conceptualizes these five moral foundations as specific modifications of fitness payoffs in a 2 x 2 game. We find that the five foundations are distinguisha...
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作者：Andrews, Isaiah; Barahona, Nano; Gentzkow, Matthew; Rambachan, Ashesh; Shapiro, Jesse M.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Stanford University; Harvard University
摘要：A researcher can use a tightly parameterized structural model to obtain internally consistent estimates of a wide range of economically interesting targets. We ask how reliable these estimates are when the researcher's model may be misspecified. We focus on the case of multivariate, potentially nonlinear models where the causal variable of interest is endogenous. Reliable estimates require that the researcher's model is flexible enough to describe the effects of the endogenous variable approxi...
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作者：Orchard, Jacob D.; Ramey, Valerie A.; Wieland, Johannes F.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Stanford University; University of California System; University of California San Diego; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We present evidence that the high estimated marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) from the leading household studies result in implausible macroeconomic counterfactuals. Using the 2008 tax rebate as a case study, we calibrate a standard macro model with the estimated micro MPCs to construct counterfactual macroeconomic consumption paths in the absence of a rebate. The counterfactual paths imply that consumption expenditures would have plummeted in spring and summer 2008 and mostly recovered ...
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作者：Bassetto, Marco; Miller, David S.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This article posits an information channel as an explanation for sudden inflations. Households saving via nominal government bonds face a choice whether to acquire costly information about future government surpluses. They trade off the cost of acquiring information about the surpluses that back bond repayment against the benefit of a more informed saving decision. Through the information channel, small changes in the economic environment can trigger large responses in consumer behavior and pr...
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作者：Chyn, Eric; Collinson, Robert; Sandler, Danielle H.
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Notre Dame
摘要：This article studies the effects of the largest residential racial desegregation initiative in U.S. history, the Gautreaux Assisted Housing Program. From the late 1970s to the 1990s, Gautreaux moved thousands of Black families into predominantly white neighborhoods to support racial and economic integration. We link historical program records to administrative data and use plausibly exogenous variation in neighborhood placements to study how desegregating moves affect children in the long run....
