-
作者：Altissimo, Filippo; Mele, Antonio
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This paper introduces a new class of parameter estimators for dynamic models, called simulated non-parametric estimators (SNEs). The SNE minimizes appropriate distances between non-parametric conditional (or joint) densities estimated from sample data and non-parametric conditional (or joint) densities estimated from data simulated out of the model of interest. Sample data and model-simulated data are smoothed with the same kernel, which considerably simplifies bandwidth selection for the purp...
-
作者：Epifani, Paolo; Gancia, Gino
作者单位：Bocconi University
摘要：This paper investigates the relationship between trade openness and the size of governments, both theoretically and empirically. We argue that openness can increase the size of governments through two channels: (1) a terms-of-trade externality, whereby trade lowers the domestic cost of taxation, and (2) the demand for insurance, whereby trade raises risk and public transfers. We provide a unified framework for studying and testing these two mechanisms. Our main theoretical prediction is that t...
-
作者：Tervioe, Marko
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：A basic problem facing most labour markets is that workers can neither commit to long-term wage contracts nor can they self-finance the costs of production. I study the effects of these imperfections when talent is industry-specific; it can only be revealed on the job, and once learnt becomes public information. I show that firms bid excessively for the pool of incumbent workers at the expense of trying out new talent. The workforce is then plagued with an unfavourable selection of individuals...
-
作者：Giacomini, Raffaella; Rossi, Barbara
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：We propose a theoretical framework for assessing whether a forecast model estimated over one period can provide good forecasts over a subsequent period. We formalize this idea by defining a forecast breakdown as a situation in which the out-of-sample performance of the model, judged by some loss function, is significantly worse than its in-sample performance. Our framework, which is valid under general conditions, can be used not only to detect past forecast breakdowns but also to predict futu...
-
作者：Bai, Jushan; Carrion-I-Silvestre, Josep Lluis
作者单位：New York University; University of Barcelona
摘要：This paper studies the problem of unit root testing in the presence of multiple structural changes and common dynamic factors. Structural breaks represent infrequent regime shifts, while dynamic factors capture common shocks underlying the comovement of economic time series. We examine the modified Sargan-Bhargava (MSB) test in the panel data setting and propose ways to handle multiple structural changes and dynamic factors. Properties of the MSB test under these non-standard conditions are de...
-
作者：Kambourov, Gueorgui; Manovskii, Iourii
作者单位：University of Toronto; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：In this article we argue that wage inequality and occupational mobility are intimately related. We are motivated by our empirical findings that human capital is occupation specific and that the fraction of workers switching occupations in the U.S. was as high as 16% a year in the early 1970's and had increased to 21% by the mid-1990's. We develop a general equilibrium model with occupation-specific human capital and heterogeneous experience levels within occupations. We find that the model, ca...
-
作者：Jovanovic, Boyan
作者单位：New York University
摘要：Motivated by the observed rise in the trade of technology, I analyse how technology would spread in a frictionless market. In such a world, low-skilled agents prefer to use old technology because it costs less; their skills do not justify the use of frontier technology. The model generates a technology-life cycle of somewhere between 68 and 124 years and per-capita income differential factors between 2.3 and 4.5. The model matches fairly well the cross-section relation between a country's inco...
-
作者：Ariely, Dan; Gneezy, Uri; Loewenstein, George; Mazar, Nina
作者单位：Duke University; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：Workers in a wide variety of jobs are paid based on performance, which is commonly seen as enhancing effort and productivity relative to non-contingent pay schemes. However, psychological research suggests that excessive rewards can, in some cases, result in a decline in performance. To test whether very high monetary rewards can decrease performance, we conducted a set of experiments in the U.S. and in India in which subjects worked on different tasks and received performance-contingent payme...
-
作者：Castro, Rui; Clementi, Gian Luca; MacDonald, Glenn
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; New York University; Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：Poor countries have lower PPP-adjusted investment rates and face higher relative prices of investment goods. It has been suggested that this happens either because these countries have a relatively lower TFP in industries producing capital goods or because they are subject to greater investment distortions. This paper provides a micro-foundation for the cross-country dispersion in investment distortions. We first document that firms producing capital goods face a higher level of idiosyncratic ...
-
作者：De La Croix, David; Doepke, Matthias
作者单位：Universite Catholique Louvain; Northwestern University
摘要：How is the quality of public education affected by the presence of private schools for the rich? Theory and evidence suggest that the link depends crucially on the political system. We develop a theory that integrates private education and fertility decisions with voting on public schooling expenditures. We find that the presence of a large private education sector benefits public schools in a broad-based democracy where politicians are responsive to low-income families but crowds out public e...
