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作者：Hugonnier, Julien; Pelgrin, Florian; St-Amour, Pascal
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); University of Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); University of Lausanne
摘要：Despite clear evidence of correlations between financial and medical statuses and decisions, most models treat financial and health-related choices separately. This article bridges this gap by proposing a tractable dynamic framework for the joint determination of optimal consumption, portfolio holdings, health investment, and health insurance. We solve for the optimal rules in closed form and capitalize on this tractability to gain a better understanding of the conditions under which separatio...
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作者：Bolton, Patrick; Brunnermeier, Markus K.; Veldkamp, Laura
作者单位：Columbia University; Princeton University; New York University
摘要：What is the role of leaders in large organizations? We propose a model in which a leader helps to overcome a misalignment of followers' incentives that inhibits coordination, while adapting the organization to a changing environment. Good leadership requires vision and special personality traits such as conviction or resoluteness to enhance the credibility of mission statements and to effectively rally agents around them. Resoluteness allows leaders to overcome a time-consistency problem that ...
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作者：DeJong, David N.; Liesenfeld, Roman; Moura, Guilherme V.; Richard, Jean-Francois; Dharmarajan, Hariharan
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; University of Kiel; Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)
摘要：We develop a numerical procedure that facilitates efficient likelihood evaluation in applications involving non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. The procedure employs continuous approximations of filtering densities, and delivers unconditionally optimal global approximations of targeted integrands to achieve likelihood approximation. Optimized approximations of targeted integrands are constructed via efficient importance sampling. Resulting likelihood approximations are continuous f...
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作者：Voigtlaender, Nico; Voth, Hans-Joachim
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; ICREA
摘要：How did Europe escape the Iron Law of Wages? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors and multiple steady states, and use it to explain why European per capita incomes and urbanization rates increased during the period 1350-1700. Productivity growth can only explain a small fraction of the rise in output per capita. Population dynamics-changes of the birth and death schedules-were far more important determinants of steady states. We show how a major shock to population can trigg...
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作者：Benabou, Roland
作者单位：Princeton University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article investigates collective denial and willful blindness in groups, organizations, and markets. Agents with anticipatory preferences, linked through an interaction structure, choose how to interpret and recall public signals about future prospects. Wishful thinking (denial of bad news) is shown to be contagious when it is harmful to others, and self-limiting when it is beneficial. Similarly, with Kreps-Porteus preferences, willful blindness (information avoidance) spreads when it incr...
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作者：Bianchi, Francesco
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：The evolution of the U.S. economy over the past 55 years is examined through the lens of a micro-founded model that allows for changes in the behaviour of the Federal Reserve and in the volatility of structural shocks. Agents are aware of the possibility of regime changes and their beliefs matter for the law of motion underlying the macroeconomy. Monetary policy is identified by repeated fluctuations between a Hawk and a Dove regime, with the latter prevailing in the 1970s and during the recen...
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作者：Bianchi, Milo; Bobba, Matteo
作者单位：Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：We explore which financial constraints matter most in the choice of becoming an entrepreneur. We consider a randomly assigned welfare programme in rural Mexico and show that cash transfers significantly increase entry into entrepreneurship. We then exploit cross-household variation in the timing of these transfers and find that current occupational choices are significantly more responsive to the transfers expected for the future than to those currently received. Guided by a simple occupationa...
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作者：Gu, Chao; Mattesini, Fabrizio; Monnet, Cyril; Wright, Randall
作者单位：University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia; University of Rome Tor Vergata; University of Bern; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We develop a model where: (i) banks take deposits and make investments; (ii) their liabilities facilitate third-party transactions. Other models have (i) or (ii), not both, although we argue they are intimately connected: we show that they both emerge from limited commitment. We describe an environment, characterize desirable allocations, and interpret the outcomes as banking arrangements. Banks are essential: without them, the set of feasible allocations is inferior. As a technical contributi...
