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作者：Meyer-Ter-Vehn, Moritz; Smith, Lones; Bognar, Katalin
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We explore costly deliberation by two differentially informed and possibly biased jurors: A hawk Lones and a dove Moritz alternately insist on a verdict until one concedes. Debate assumes one of two genres, depending on bias: Ajuror, say Lones, is intransigent if he wishes to prevail and reach a conviction for any type of Moritz next to concede. In contrast, Lones is ambivalent if he wants the strongest conceding types of Moritz to push for acquittal. Both jurors are ambivalent with small bias...
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作者：Cunningham, Scott; Shah, Manisha
作者单位：Baylor University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Most governments in the world, including the U.S., prohibit sex work. Given these types of laws rarely change and are fairly uniform across regions, our knowledge about the impact of decriminalizing sex work is largely conjectural. We exploit the fact that a Rhode Island District Court judge unexpectedly decriminalized indoor sex work to provide causal estimates of the impact of decriminalization on the composition of the sex market, reported rape offences, and sexually transmitted infections....
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作者：Bick, Alexander; Fuchs-Schundeln, Nicola
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Goethe University Frankfurt; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We document contemporaneous differences in the aggregate labour supply of married couples across seventeen European countries and the U.S. Based on a model of joint household decision making, we quantify the contribution of international differences in non-linear labour income taxes and consumption taxes to the international differences in hours worked in the data. Through the lens of the model, taxes, together with wages and the educational composition, account for a significant part of the s...
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作者：Llull, Joan
作者单位：Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：Recent literature analysing wage effects of immigration assumes labour supply is fixed across education-experience cells. This article departs from this assumption estimating a labour market equilibrium dynamic discrete choice model on U.S. micro-data for 1967-2007. Individuals adjust to immigration by changing education, participation, and/ or occupation. Adjustments are heterogeneous: 4.2-26.2% of prime-aged native males change their careers; of them, some switch to white-collar careers and ...
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作者：Benigno, Gianluca; Fornaro, Luca
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; Pompeu Fabra University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We provide a Keynesian growth theory in which pessimistic expectations can lead to very persistent, or even permanent, slumps characterized by high unemployment and weak growth. We refer to these episodes as stagnation traps, because they consist in the joint occurrence of a liquidity and a growth trap. In a stagnation trap, the central bank is unable to restore full employment because weak growth depresses aggregate demand and pushes the policy rate against the zero lower bound, while growth ...
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作者：Duernecker, Georg; Vega-Redondo, Fernando
作者单位：University of Munich; Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：We propose a stylized dynamic model to understand the role of social networks in the phenomenon we call globalization. In a nutshell, this term refers to the process by which even agents who are geographically far apart come to interact, thus being able to overcome what would otherwise be a fast saturation of local opportunities. Akey feature of our model is that the social network is the main channel through which agents exploit new opportunities. Therefore, only if the social network becomes...
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作者：Berger, David; Guerrieri, Veronica; Lorenzoni, Guido; Vavra, Joseph
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Chicago
摘要：Recent empirical work shows large consumption responses to house price movements. This is at odds with a prominent theoretical view which, using the logic of the permanent income hypothesis, argues that consumption responses should be small. We show that, in contrast to this view, workhorse models of consumption with incomplete markets calibrated to rich cross-sectional micro facts actually predict large consumption responses, in line with the data. To explain this result, we show that consump...
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作者：Canay, Ivan A.; Kamat, Vishal
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：In the regression discontinuity design (RDD), it is common practice to assess the credibility of the design by testing whether the means of baseline covariates do not change at the cut-off (or threshold) of the running variable. This practice is partly motivated by the stronger implication derived by Lee (2008), who showed that under certain conditions the distribution of baseline covariates in the RDD must be continuous at the cut-off. We propose a permutation test based on the so-called indu...
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作者：Chang, Tom Y.; Huang, Wei; Wang, Yongxian
作者单位：University of Southern California; University of International Business & Economics; Shanghai Jiao Tong University
摘要：We find that daily air pollution levels have a significant effect on the decision to purchase or cancel health insurance in a manner inconsistent with rational choice theory. A one standard deviation increase in daily air pollution leads to a 7.2% increase in the number of insurance contracts sold that day. Conditional on purchase, a one standard deviation decrease in air pollution during the cooling-off (i.e. cost-free cancellation) period relative to the order-date level increases the return...
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作者：Ben-Porath, Elchanan; Dekel, Eddie; Lipman, Barton L.
作者单位：Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Northwestern University; Tel Aviv University; Boston University
摘要：An agent chooses among projects with random outcomes. His payoff is increasing in the outcome and in an observer's expectation of the outcome. With some probability, the agent will be able to disclose some information about the true outcome to the observer. We show that choice is inefficient in general. We illustrate this point with a characterization of the inefficiencies that result when the agent can perfectly disclose the outcome with some probability and can disclose nothing otherwise as ...
