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作者：Herkenhoff, Kyle F.
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：Unemployed households' access to unsecured revolving credit more than tripled over the last three decades. This article analyses how both cyclical fluctuations and trend increases in credit access impact the business cycle. The main quantitative result is that credit expansions and contractions have contributed to moderately deeper and more protracted recessions over the last 40 years. As more individuals obtained credit from 1977 to 2010, cyclical credit fluctuations affected a larger share o...
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作者：Ahn, David S.; Iijima, Ryota; Le Yaouanq, Yves; Sarver, Todd
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Yale University; University of Munich; Duke University
摘要：We propose non-parametric definitions of absolute and comparative naivete. These definitions leverage ex ante choice of menu to identify predictions of future behaviour and ex post (random) choices from menus to identify actual behaviour. The main advantage of our definitions is their independence from any assumed functional form for the utility function representing behaviour. An individual is sophisticated if she is indifferent ex ante between retaining the option to choose from a menu ex po...
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作者：Jung, Junehyuk; Kim, Jeong Ho (John); Matejka, Filip; Sims, Christopher A.
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; Emory University; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Princeton University
摘要：Individuals are constantly processing external information and translating it into actions. This draws on limited resources of attention and requires economizing on attention devoted to signals related to economic behaviour. A natural measure of such costs is based on Shannon's channel capacity. Modelling economic agents as constrained by Shannon capacity as they process freely available information turns out to imply that discretely distributed actions, and thus actions that persist across re...
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作者：Morales, Eduardo; Sheu, Gloria; Zahler, Andres
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University Diego Portales
摘要：Exporting firms often enter foreign markets that are similar to their previous export destinations. We develop a dynamic model in which a firm's exports in a market may depend on how similar the market is to the firm's home country (gravity) and to its previous export destinations (extended gravity). Given the large number of export paths from which forward-looking firms may choose, we use a moment inequality approach to estimate our model. Our estimates indicate that sharing similarities with...
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作者：Abito, Jose Miguel; Salant, Yuval
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Northwestern University
摘要：Panel and experimental data are used to analyse the economic outcomes in the extended warranty market. We establish that the strong demand and high profits in this market are driven by consumers distorting the failure probability of the insured product, rather than standard risk aversion or sellers' market power. Providing information to consumers about failure probabilities significantly reduces their willingness to pay for warranties, indicating the important role of information, or lack of,...
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作者：Bhaskar, V.; Thomas, Caroline
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作者：Bailey, Michael; Davila, Eduardo; Kuchler, Theresa; Stroebel, Johannes
作者单位：Facebook Inc; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We study the relationship between homebuyers' beliefs about future house price changes and their mortgage leverage choices. Whether more pessimistic homebuyers choose higher or lower leverage depends on their willingness and ability to reduce the size of their housing market investments. When households primarily maximize the levered return of their property investments, more pessimistic homebuyers reduce their leverage to purchase smaller houses. On the other hand, when considerations such as...
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作者：Souza-Rodrigues, Eduardo
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：Deforestation is a matter of pressing global concern, yet surprisingly little is known about the relative efficacy of various policies designed to combat it. This article sets out a framework for measuring the cost effectiveness of alternative policies-both command-and-control and incentive-based-in the Brazilian Amazon. First, I estimate the demand for deforestation on private properties, exploiting regional variation in transportation costs as a means to recover farmers' responses to permane...
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作者：Chassang, Sylvain; Miquel, Gerard Padro, I
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University
摘要：We consider a game between a principal, an agent, and a monitor in which the principal would like to rely on messages by the monitor (the potential whistleblower) to target intervention against a misbehaving agent. The difficulty is that the agent can credibly threaten to retaliate against the monitor in the event of an intervention. In this setting, intervention policies that are responsive to the monitor's message provide informative signals to the agent, which can be used to target threats ...
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作者：Banerjee, Abhijit; Chandrasekhar, Arun G.; Duflo, Esther; Jackson, Matthew O.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; The Santa Fe Institute
摘要：Can we identify highly central individuals in a network without collecting network data, simply by asking community members? Can seeding information via such nominated individuals lead to significantly wider diffusion than via randomly chosen people, or even respected ones? In two separate large field experiments in India, we answer both questions in the affirmative. In particular, in 521 villages in Haryana, we provided information on monthly immunization camps to either randomly selected ind...
