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作者：Di Tella, Sebastian; Hall, Robert
作者单位：Stanford University; Stanford University; Stanford University
摘要：We develop a simple flexible-price model of business cycles driven by spikes in risk premiums. Aggregate shocks increase firms' uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and raise risk premiums. We show that risk shocks can create quantitatively plausible recessions, with contractions in employment, consumption, and investment. Business cycles are inefficient-output, employment, and consumption fall too much during recessions, compared to the constrained-efficient allocation. Optimal policy involves stim...
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作者：Choudhary, M. Ali; Limodio, Nicola
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：Banks in low-income countries face severe liquidity risk due to volatile deposits, which destabilize their funding, and dysfunctional liquidity markets, which induce expensive interbank and central bank lending. Such liquidity risk dissuades the transformation of short-term deposits into long-term loans and deters long-term investment. To validate this mechanism, we exploit a Sharia-compliant levy in Pakistan, which generates unintended and quasi-experimental variation in liquidity risk, with ...
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作者：Faber, Benjamin; Fally, Thibault
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：A growing literature has documented the role of firm heterogeneity within sectors for nominal income inequality. This article explores the implications for household price indices across the income distribution. Using detailed matched U.S. home and store scanner microdata, we present evidence that rich and poor households source their consumption differently across the firm size distribution within disaggregated product groups. We use the data to examine alternative explanations, propose a tra...
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作者：Elsby, Michael W. L.; Gottfries, Axel
作者单位：University of Edinburgh
摘要：We devise a tractable model of firm dynamics with on-the-job search. The model admits analytical solutions for equilibrium outcomes, including quit, layoff, hiring, and vacancy-filling rates, as well as the distributions of job values, a fundamental challenge posed by the environment. Optimal labor demand takes a novel form whereby hiring firms allow their marginal product to diffuse over an interval. The evolution of the marginal product over this interval endogenously exhibits gradual mean r...
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作者：Palma, Nuno
作者单位：University of Manchester; Universidade de Lisboa; Institute of Social Sciences, University of Lisbon (ICS-UL); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：The discovery of massive deposits of precious metals in America during the early modern period caused an exogenous monetary injection to Europe's money supply. I use this episode to identify the causal effects of money. Using a panel of six European countries, I find that monetary expansions had a material impact on real economic activity. The magnitudes are substantial and persist for a long time: an exogenous 10% increase in the production of precious metals in America measured relative to t...
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作者：Kang, Karam; Miller, Robert A.
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：Government procurement contracts rarely have many bids, often only one. Motivated by the institutional features of federal procurement, this article develops a principal-agent model where a buyer seeks sellers at a cost and negotiates contract terms with them. The model is identified and estimated with data on IT and telecommunications contracts. We find the benefits of drawing additional sellers are significantly reduced because the procurement agency can extract informational rents from sell...
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作者：Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus; Gerhardt, Holger; Riener, Gerhard; Schwerter, Frederik; Strang, Louis
作者单位：University of Konstanz; University of Bonn; Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf; University of Cologne
摘要：Many intertemporal trade-offs are unbalanced: while the advantages of options are concentrated in a few periods, the disadvantages are dispersed over numerous periods. We provide novel experimental evidence for concentration bias, the tendency to overweight advantages that are concentrated in time. Subjects commit to too much overtime work that is dispersed over multiple days in exchange for a bonus that is concentrated in time: concentration bias increases subjects' willingness to work by 22....
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作者：Angeletos, George-Marios; Lian, Chen
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We revisit the question of why shifts in aggregate demand drive business cycles. Our theory combines intertemporal substitution in production with rational confusion, or bounded rationality, in consumption and investment. The first element allows aggregate supply to respond to shifts in aggregate demand without nominal rigidity. The second introduces a confidence multiplier, that is, a positive feedback loop between real economic activity, consumer expectations of permanent income, and investo...
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作者：Broner, Fernando; Clancy, Daragh; Erce, Aitor; Martin, Alberto
作者单位：Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; European Central Bank; Central Bank of Ireland; Universidad Publica de Navarra
摘要：This article explores a natural connection between fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt. Although fiscal expansions can raise domestic economic activity through various channels, they can also have crowding-out effects if the resources used to acquire public debt reduce domestic consumption and investment. These crowding-out effects are likely to be weaker when governments have access to foreign savings when selling their debt, leading to larger fiscal multipliers. We test th...
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作者：Carrera, Mariana; Royer, Heather; Stehr, Mark; Sydnor, Justin; Taubinsky, Dmitry
作者单位：Montana State University System; Montana State University Bozeman; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Drexel University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：This article investigates whether offers of commitment contracts, in the form of self-imposed choice-set restrictions and penalties with no financial upside, are well-targeted tools for addressing self-control problems. In an experiment on gym attendance (N = 1, 248), we examine take-up of commitment contracts and also introduce a separate elicitation task to identify actual and perceived time inconsistency. There is high take-up of commitment contracts for greater gym attendance, resulting in...
