-
作者：Allcott, Hunt; Kim, Joshua; Taubinsky, Dmitry; Zinman, Jonathan
作者单位：Microsoft; National Bureau of Economic Research; Facebook Inc
摘要：It is often argued that people might take on too much high-cost debt because they are present focused and/or over-optimistic about how soon they will repay. We measure borrowers' present focus and over-optimism using an experiment with a large payday lender. Although the most inexperienced quartile of borrowers under-estimate their likelihood of future borrowing, the more experienced three quartiles predict correctly on average. This finding contrasts sharply with priors we elicited from 103 p...
-
作者：Adamopoulos, Tasso; Restuccia, Diego
作者单位：York University - Canada; University of Toronto; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We quantify the role of geography and land quality for agricultural productivity differences across countries using high-resolution micro-geography data and a spatial accounting framework. The rich spatial data provide for each cell of land covering the entire globe, the potential yield for 18 crops, which measures the maximum attainable crop output given soil quality, climate conditions, terrain topography, and a given level of cultivation inputs. While there is considerable heterogeneity in ...
-
作者：Andre, Peter; Pizzinelli, Carlo; Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; University of Copenhagen
摘要：We study people's subjective models of the macroeconomy and shed light on their attentional foundations. To do so, we measure beliefs about the effects of macroeconomic shocks on unemployment and inflation, providing respondents with identical information about the parameters of the shocks and previous realizations of macroeconomic variables. Within samples of 6,500 US households and 1,500 experts, beliefs are widely dispersed, even about the directional effects of shocks, and there are large ...
-
作者：Allen, Treb; Arkolakis, Costas
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University
摘要：Each year in the US, hundreds of billions of dollars are spent on transportation infrastructure and billions of hours are lost in traffic. We develop a quantitative general equilibrium spatial framework featuring endogenous transportation costs and traffic congestion and apply it to evaluate the welfare impact of transportation infrastructure improvements. Our approach yields analytical expressions for transportation costs between any two locations, the traffic along each link of the transport...
-
作者：di Giovanni, Julian; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Ulu, Mehmet Fatih; Baskaya, Yusuf Soner
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Pompeu Fabra University; ICREA; Barcelona School of Economics; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Koc University; University of Glasgow
摘要：This article studies the transmission of the Global Financial Cycle (GFC) to domestic credit market conditions in a large emerging market, Turkey, over 2003-13. We use administrative data covering the universe of corporate credit transactions matched to bank balance sheets to document four facts: (1) an easing in global financial conditions leads to lower borrowing costs and an increase in local lending; (2) domestic banks more exposed to international capital markets transmit the GFC locally;...
-
作者：Flueckiger, Matthias; Hornung, Erik; Larch, Mario; Ludwig, Markus; Mees, Allard
作者单位：University of York - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Cologne; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Bayreuth; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Braunschweig University of Technology
摘要：We show that the creation of the first integrated multi-modal pan-European transport network during Roman times influences economic integration over two millennia. Drawing on spatially highly disaggregated data on excavated Roman ceramics, we document that contemporary interregional trade was influenced by connectivity within the network. Today, these connectivity differentials continue to influence integration as approximated by cross-regional firm investment behaviour. Continuity is partly e...
-
作者：Li, Jia; Liao, Zhipeng; Quaedvlieg, Rogier
作者单位：Duke University; Singapore Management University; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC
摘要：This article proposes a test for the conditional superior predictive ability (CSPA) of a family of forecasting methods with respect to a benchmark. The test is functional in nature: under the null hypothesis, the benchmark's conditional expected loss is no more than those of the competitors, uniformly across all conditioning states. By inverting the CSPA tests for a set of benchmarks, we obtain confidence sets for the uniformly most superior method. The econometric inference pertains to testin...
-
作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Restrepo, Pascual
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Boston University
摘要：We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, because it creates a shortage of middle-aged workers specializing in manual production tasks. We show that demographic change is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across U.S. commuting zones. We also document more automation innovation in countries undergoing faster aging. Our directed technolo...
-
作者：Combe, Julien; Tercieux, Olivier; Terrier, Camille
作者单位：Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Paris School of Economics; University of Lausanne; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：To assign teachers to schools, a modified version of the well-known deferred acceptance mechanism has been proposed in the literature and is used in practice. We show that this mechanism fails to be fair and efficient for both teachers and schools. We identify a class of strategy-proof mechanisms that cannot be improved upon in terms of both efficiency and fairness. Using a rich dataset on teachers' applications in France, we estimate teachers preferences and perform a counterfactual analysis....
-
作者：Cogley, Timothy; Jovanovic, Boyan
作者单位：New York University
摘要：We study the effects of parameter uncertainty prompted by structural breaks. In our model, agents respond differently to uncertainty prompted by regime shifts in shock processes than they react to comparable perceived increases in shock volatility. The magnitude of the response to an increase in uncertainty about TFP associated with a structural break is greater than that of a response to a comparable perceived rise in volatility. This is because lifetime utility varies more when shocks shift ...
