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作者：Cerreia-Vioglio, Simone; Maccheroni, Fabio; Marinacci, Massimo; Rustichini, Aldo
作者单位：Bocconi University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：We provide two characterizations, one axiomatic and the other neuro-computational, of the dependence of choice probabilities on deadlines, within the widely used softmax representation p(t) (a, A)= e(u(a)/lambda(t) +) (alpha(alpha))/Sigma(b is an element of A)e (u(b)/lambda(t) + alpha(b)), where p(t) (a, A) is the probability that alternative a is selected from the set A of feasible alternatives if t is the time available to decide, lambda is a time-dependent noise parameter measuring the unit...
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作者：Stango, Victor; Zinman, Jonathan
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We examine how 17 behavioural biases relate to each other, to three standard measures of risk and time preferences, to cognitive skills, personality, and demographics, and to outcomes in household finance, well-being, and health. Most consumers in our nationally representative panel data exhibit multiple biases, with substantial cross-person heterogeneity. Biases are positively correlated within person, especially after adjusting for measurement error. From that correlation structure, we reduc...
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作者：Pei, Harry
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：A patient seller interacts with a sequence of myopic consumers. Each period, the seller chooses the quality of his product, and a consumer decides whether to trust the seller after she observes the seller's actions in the last K periods (limited memory) and at least one previous consumer's action (observational learning). However, the consumer cannot observe the seller's action in the current period. With positive probability, the seller is a commitment type who plays his Stackelberg action in...
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作者：Fillmore, Ian
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：In the US, the federal government grants colleges access to a student's Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) which facilitates substantial price discrimination. This article is the first to estimate the consequences of allowing colleges to use the FAFSA in their pricing decisions. I build and estimate a structural model of college pricing and simulate counterfactuals wherein some or all of the FAFSA information is restricted. I find that if FAFSA information were restricted, 13% of...
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作者：Ashlagi, Itai; Nikzad, Afshin; Strack, Philipp
作者单位：University of Southern California; Yale University
摘要：We study dynamic matching in exchange markets with easy- and hard-to-match agents. A greedy policy, which attempts to match agents upon arrival, ignores the positive externality that waiting agents provide by facilitating future matchings. We prove that the trade-off between a thicker market and faster matching vanishes in large markets; the greedy policy leads to shorter waiting times and more agents matched than any other policy. We empirically confirm these findings in data from the Nationa...
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作者：Angeletos, George-Marios; Lorenzoni, Guido; Pavan, Alessandro
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Entrepreneurs and venture capitalists are concerned about investors' beliefs in asset markets because these beliefs shape the value of a potential IPO and the possibility to expand. Investors' beliefs, on the other hand, can be influenced by start-up activity insofar as the latter contains valuable information about eventual profitability. This two-way feedback is shown to generate excessive, non-fundamental, waves in start-up activity, IPOs, and asset prices. Policies that lean against the wi...
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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; van Wincoop, Eric; Young, Eric R.
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：We introduce a portfolio friction in a two-country DSGE model where investors face a constant probability to make new portfolio decisions. The friction leads to a more gradual portfolio adjustment to shocks and a weaker portfolio response to changes in expected excess returns. We apply the model to monthly data for the US and the rest of the world for equity portfolios. We show that the model is consistent with a broad set of evidence related to portfolios, equity prices, and excess returns fo...
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作者：Lagerborg, Andresa; Pappa, Evi; Ravn, Morten O.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; University College London
摘要：We estimate the dynamic causal effects of consumer sentiment shocks in the US. We identify autonomous changes in survey evidence on consumer confidence using fatalities in mass shootings as an instrument. We find the instrument to be significant for an aggregate index of consumer expectations and also back up the identification scheme with micro evidence that exploits the geographical variation in mass shootings. Sentiment shocks have real macroeconomic effects. A negative sentiment shock is r...
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作者：Torslov, Thomas; Wier, Ludvig; Zucman, Gabriel
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：By exploiting new macroeconomic data known as foreign affiliates statistics, we show that affiliates of foreign multinational firms are an order of magnitude more profitable than local firms in a number of low-tax countries. Leveraging this differential profitability, we estimate that 36% of multinational profits are shifted to tax havens globally. US multinationals shift twice as much profit as other multinationals relative to the size of their foreign earnings. We analyse how the location of...
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作者：Abaluck, Jason; Gruber, Jonathan
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We study the impact of changing choice set size on the quality of choices in health insurance markets. Using novel data on enrolment and medical claims for school district employees in the state of Oregon, we document that the average employee could save $600 by switching to a lower cost plan. Structural modelling reveals large choice inconsistencies such as non-equalization of the dollar spent on premiums and out of pocket, and a novel form of approximate inertia where enrolees are excessivel...
