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作者：Rambachan, Ashesh; Roth, Jonathan
作者单位：Microsoft; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Brown University
摘要：This paper proposes tools for robust inference in difference-in-differences and event-study designs where the parallel trends assumption may be violated. Instead of requiring that parallel trends holds exactly, we impose restrictions on how different the post-treatment violations of parallel trends can be from the pre-treatment differences in trends (pre-trends). The causal parameter of interest is partially identified under these restrictions. We introduce two approaches that guarantee unifor...
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作者：Kekre, Rohan
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：I study unemployment insurance (UI) in general equilibrium with incomplete markets, search frictions, and nominal rigidities. An increase in generosity raises the aggregate demand for consumption if the unemployed have a higher marginal propensity to consume than the employed or if agents precautionary save in light of future income risk. This raises output and employment unless monetary policy raises the nominal interest rate. In an analysis of the U.S. economy over 2008-2014, UI benefit exte...
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作者：Dasaratha, Krishna; Golub, Benjamin; Hak, Nir
作者单位：Boston University; Northwestern University; Uber Technologies, Inc.
摘要：Agents learn about a changing state using private signals and their neighbours' past estimates of the state. We present a model in which Bayesian agents in equilibrium use neighbours' estimates simply by taking weighted sums with time-invariant weights. The dynamics thus parallel those of the tractable DeGroot model of learning in networks, but arise as an equilibrium outcome rather than a behavioural assumption. We examine whether information aggregation is nearly optimal as neighbourhoods gr...
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作者：Ely, Jeffrey C.; Georgiadis, George; Khorasani, Sina; Rayo, Luis
作者单位：Northwestern University; University System of Ohio; University of Dayton
摘要：We obtain optimal dynamic contests for environments where the designer monitors effort through coarse, binary signals-Poisson successes-and aims to elicit maximum effort, ideally in the least amount of time possible, given a fixed prize. The designer has a vast set of contests to choose from, featuring termination and prize-allocation rules together with real-time feedback for the contestants. Every effort-maximizing contest (which also maximizes total expected successes) has a history-depende...
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作者：Kartik, Navin; Lee, SangMok; Rappoport, Daniel
作者单位：Columbia University; Washington University (WUSTL); University of Chicago
摘要：An agent's preferences depend on an ordered parameter or type. We characterize the set of utility functions with single-crossing differences (SCD) in convex environments. These include preferences over lotteries, both in expected utility and rank-dependent utility frameworks, and preferences over bundles of goods and over consumption streams. Our notion of SCD does not presume an order on the choice space. This unordered SCD is necessary and sufficient for interval choice comparative statics. ...
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作者：Deb, Rahul; Roesler, Anne-Katrin
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：A monopolist seller of multiple goods screens a buyer whose type vector is initially unknown to both but drawn from a commonly known prior distribution. The seller chooses a mechanism to maximize her worst-case profits against all possible signals from which the buyer can learn about his values for the goods. We show that it is robustly optimal for the seller to bundle goods with identical demands (these are goods that can be permuted without changing the buyer's prior type distribution). Cons...
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作者：L'Huillier, Jean-Paul; Singh, Sanjay R.; Yoo, Donghoon
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Brandeis University; Brandeis University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of California System; University of California Davis; Academia Sinica - Taiwan; University of Osaka
摘要：Diagnostic expectations constitute a realistic behavioural model of inference. This paper shows that this approach to expectation formation can be productively integrated into the New Keynesian framework. Diagnostic expectations generate endogenous extrapolation in general equilibrium. We show that diagnostic expectations generate extra amplification in the presence of nominal frictions; a fall in aggregate supply generates a Keynesian recession; fiscal policy is more effective at stimulating ...
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作者：Bachas, Pierre; Gadenne, Lucie; Jensen, Anders
作者单位：ESSEC Business School; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Queen Mary University London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Can taxes on consumption redistribute in developing countries? Contrary to consensus, we show that taxing consumption is progressive once we account for informal consumption. Using household expenditure surveys in 32 countries, we proxy for informal consumption using the type of store where purchases occur. We establish that the budget share spent in informal stores steeply declines with income, so that richer households pay a substantially larger share of their income in taxes. Our findings i...
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作者：Bishop, Kelly C.; Ketcham, Jonathan D.; Kuminoff, Nicolai V.
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study whether long-term cumulative exposure to airborne small particulate matter (PM2.5) affects the probability that an individual receives a new diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease or related dementias. We track the health, residential location, and PM2.5 exposures of Americans aged sixty-five and above from 2001 through 2013. The expansion of Clean Air Act regulations led to quasi-random variation in individuals' subsequent exposures to PM2.5. We leverage these regulations to construct inst...
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作者：Jiang, Zhengyang; Krishnamurthy, Arvind; Lustig, Hanno
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：We develop a model of the global financial cycle with one key ingredient: the international demand for safe dollar assets. The model matches patterns of dollar borrowing and currency mismatch, the U.S. external balance sheet, exorbitant privilege, spillovers of the U.S. monetary policy to the rest of the world, and the dollar as a global risk factor. In doing so, we lay out a novel transmission mechanism through which the U.S. monetary policy affects the currency market and the global economy....
