-
作者：Carneiro, Anabela; Guimaraes, Paulo; Portugal, Pedro
作者单位：Universidade do Porto; Universidade do Porto; University of South Carolina System; University of South Carolina Columbia; Banco de Portugal; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：Using a longitudinal matched employer-employee dataset for Portugal over the 1986-2007 period, this study analyzes the wage responses to aggregate labor market conditions for newly hired workers and existing workers within the same firm. Accounting for worker, firm, and job title heterogeneity, the data support the hypothesis that entry wages are more procyclical than wages of stayers. A one point increase in the unemployment rate decreases wages of newly hired workers within a given firm-job ...
-
作者：Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：While the degree of policy inertia in central banks' reaction functions is a central ingredient in theoretical and empirical monetary economics, the source of the observed policy inertia in the United States is controversial, with tests of competing hypotheses, such as interest-smoothing and persistent-shocks, being inconclusive. This paper employs real time data; nested specifications with flexible time series structures; narratives; interest rate forecasts of the Fed, financial markets, and ...
-
作者：Chari, Anusha; Henry, Peter Blair; Sasson, Diego
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; Brookings Institution
摘要：For three years after the typical emerging economy opens its stock market to inflows of foreign capital, the average annual growth rate of the real wage in the manufacturing sector increases by a factor of three. No such increase occurs in a control group of countries that do not liberalize. The temporary increase in wage growth drives up the level of the average worker's annual compensation by US $487-an increase equal to nearly one-fifth of their annual pre-liberalization salary. Overall, th...
-
作者：Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, Raf
作者单位：Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Universite Catholique Louvain; European Central Bank; National Bank of Belgium
摘要：This paper evaluates the empirical performance of a medium-scale DSGE model with agents forming expectations using small forecasting models updated by the Kalman filter. The adaptive learning model fits the data better than the rational expectations (RE) model. Beliefs about the inflation persistence explain the observed decline in the mean and the volatility of inflation as well as Phillips curve flattening. Learning about inflation results in lower estimates for the persistence of the exogen...
