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作者：Dickens, R; Ellwood, DT
作者单位：University of London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Harvard University
摘要：Child poverty rose sharply in Britain and the US in the period preceding the Blair and Clinton governments, so that over a third of children were in poverty in both countries. Demographic change, falls in work and increasing wage inequality all contributed to this rise in Britain, with benefit changes having an offsetting effect. In the US, demographic and wages changes were the drivers. Both administrations acted with a range of welfare reforms aimed at increasing work incentives and, in Brit...
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作者：Buiter, WH; Panigirtzoglou, N
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：The paper considers two small analytical models, one Old-Keynesian, the other New-Keynesian, possessing equilibria where nominal interest rates at all maturities can be stuck at their zero lower bound. When the authorities remove the zero nominal interest rate floor by adopting an augmented monetary rule that systematically keeps the nominal interest rate on base money at. or below the nominal interest rate on non-monetary instruments, the lower bound equilibria are eliminated, thus allowing a...
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作者：Obstfeld, M; Taylor, AM
摘要：What determines sovereign risk? We study the London bond market from the 1870s to the 1930s. Our findings support conventional wisdom concerning the low credibility of the interwar gold standard. Before 1914 gold standard adherence effectively signalled credibility and shaved up to 30 basis points from country borrowing spreads. In the 1920s, however, simply resuming prewar gold parities was insufficient to secure benefits. Countries that devalued before resumption were treated more favourably...
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作者：Nöth, M; Weber, M
作者单位：University of Mannheim
摘要：In economic models, it is usually assumed that agents aggregate their private information with all available public information correctly and completely. In this experiment, we identify subjects' updating procedures and analyse the consequences for the aggregation process. Decisions can be based on private information with known quality and on the observed decisions of other participants. In this setting with random ordering, information cascades are observable and agents' overconfidence has a...
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作者：Campbell, JY; Viceira, LM; White, JS
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：Conventional wisdom holds that conservative investors should avoid exposure to foreign currency risk. Even if they hold foreign equities, they should hedge the currency exposure of these positions and hold only domestic Treasury bills. This paper argues that the conventional wisdom may be wrong for long-term investors. Domestic bills are risky for long-term investors, because real interest rates vary over time and bills must be rolled over at uncertain future interest rates. This risk can be h...
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作者：Åstebro, T
作者单位：University of Waterloo
摘要：Examining a sample of 1,091 inventions I investigate the magnitude and distribution of the pretax internal rate of return (IRR) to inventive activity. The average IRR on a portfolio investment in these inventions is 11.4%. This is higher than the risk-free rate but lower than the long-run return on high-risk securities and the long-run return on early-stage venture capital funds. The portfolio IRR is significantly higher, for some ex ante identifiable classes of inventions. The distribution of...
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作者：Aidt, TS
作者单位：University of Cambridge; University of Cambridge
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作者：Guttman, JM
作者单位：Bar Ilan University
摘要：This paper models self-enforcing agreements and the evolution of preferences for reciprocity when all agents are rational, Bayesian optimisers. In this 'indirect' evolutionary model, player types are defined not by their strategies, but by their preferences. The paper studies the evolution of a community consisting of 'opportunists', who maximise material payoffs, and 'reciprocators', who prefer joint co-operation to exploiting their opponents. Players are randomly matched to play a finitely r...
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作者：Davis, EP
作者单位：Brunel University
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作者：Lumsdaine, RL; Prasad, ES
作者单位：Deutsche Bank; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In this paper, we develop an aggregation procedure using time-varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time-varying weights is based on some stylised features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows for a unified treatment of cyclical and seasonal fluctuations and also accommodates the dynamic propagation of shocks across countries. We find evidence for a 'world business cycle' as well as evidence f...
