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作者：Guidolin, M; Timmermann, A
作者单位：University of Virginia; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：This paper presents evidence of persistent 'bull' and 'bear' regimes in UK stock and bond returns and considers their economic implications from the perspective of an investor's portfolio allocation. We find that the perceived state probability has a large effect on the optimal asset allocation, particularly at short investment horizons. If ignored, the presence of such regimes gives rise to substantial welfare costs. Parameter estimation uncertainty, while clearly important, does not overturn...
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作者：Kocher, MG; Sutter, M
作者单位：University of Innsbruck; Max Planck Society
摘要：Economics has devoted little attention to whether the type of decision maker matters for economic decisions. However, many important decisions like those on monetary policy or a company's business strategy are made by (small) groups rather than an individual. We compare behaviour of individuals and small groups in an experimental beauty-contest game. Our findings suggest that groups are not smarter decision makers per se but that they learn faster than individuals. When individuals compete aga...
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作者：Moav, O
作者单位：Hebrew University of Jerusalem
摘要：This paper develops a theory of fertility that offers an explanation for the persistence of poverty within and across countries. If educated individuals have a comparative advantage in raising educated children then parental fertility choice is shown to give rise to a poverty trap, in which the poor choose high fertility rates with low investment in child quality. Moreover, the impact of child quality choice on economic performance is amplified by the diluting effect of higher fertility on phy...
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作者：Zazzaro, A
作者单位：Marche Polytechnic University
摘要：The intimate linkages between law and finance are currently the centre of wide-ranging empirical investigations. This article presents a simple banking model with information asymmetries concerning borrowers' entrepreneurial talent. It is shown that improvements in the enforcement of contract by courts reduce agency problems but can also reduce the bank's incentive to screen borrowers adequately, thus worsening credit allocation. A stricter enforcement of credit contracts, therefore, may be so...
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作者：Dessy, SE; Pallage, S
作者单位：Laval University; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
摘要：Although intuitive and morally compelling, a ban on the worst forms of child labour in poor countries is unlikely to be welfare improving. We show that harmful forms of child labour have an economic role: by maintaining wages for child labour high enough, they allow human capital accumulation in poor countries. Unless appropriate mechanisms are designed to mitigate the decline in child labour wages caused by reduced employment options for children, a ban on harmful forms of child labour will l...
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作者：Nickell, S; Nunziata, L; Ochel, W
作者单位：Bank of England; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Oxford
摘要：This paper presents an empirical analysis of unemployment patterns in the OECD countries from the 1960s to the 1990s. Our results indicate the following. First, broad movements in unemployment across the OECD can be explained by shifts in labour market institutions. Second, interactions between average values of these institutions and shocks make no significant additional contribution to our understanding of OECD unemployment changes.
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作者：Gillman, M; Kejak, M
作者单位：Cardiff University; Central European University; Hungarian Academy of Sciences; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Czech Academy of Sciences
摘要：The paper shows that contrary to conventional wisdom an endogenous growth economy with human capital and alternative payment mechanisms can robustly explain major facets of the long-run inflation experience. A negative inflation-growth relation is explained, including a striking nonlinearity found repeatedly in empirical studies. A set of Tobin (1965) effects are also explained and, further, linked in magnitude to the growth effects through the interest elasticity of money demand. Undisclosed ...
