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作者：Duca, John V.; Muellbauer, John; Murphy, Anthony
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Southern Methodist University
摘要：Most US house price models break down in the mid-2000s, due to the omission of exogenous changes in mortgage credit supply (associated with the sub-prime mortgage boom) from house price-to-rent ratio and inverted housing demand models. Previous models lack data on credit constraints facing first-time home-buyers. Incorporating a measure of credit conditions - the cyclically adjusted loan-to-value ratio for first-time buyers - into house price-to-rent ratio models yields stable long-run relatio...
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作者：Reinhart, Carmen M.; Rogoff, Kenneth S.
作者单位：Harvard University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The literature on domestic debt default is sparse, as are the data. We compile a database on public debt that spans the nineteenth century to 2010. Our findings are as follows. First, domestic debt accounts for almost two-thirds of public debt. Second, the data help to explain the puzzle of why countries default on external debts at seemingly low debt thresholds. Third, domestic debt (which is often larger than the monetary base in the run-up to high inflation) has largely been ignored in the ...
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作者：Haan, Marco A.; Moraga-Gonzalez, Jose L.
作者单位：University of Groningen; ICREA; University of Navarra; IESE Business School
摘要：We model the idea that when consumers search for products, they first visit the firm whose advertising is most salient. The gains a firm derives from being visited early increase in search costs, so equilibrium advertising increases as search costs rise. As a result, higher search costs may decrease both consumer welfare and firm profits. We extend the basic model by allowing for firm heterogeneity in advertising costs. Firms that raise attention more easily advertise more but also charge lowe...
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作者：Czernich, Nina; Falck, Oliver; Kretschmer, Tobias; Woessmann, Ludger
作者单位：Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：We estimate the effect of broadband infrastructure, which enables high-speed internet, on economic growth in the panel of OECD countries in 1996-2007. Our instrumental variable model derives its non-linear first stage from a logistic diffusion model where pre-existing voice telephony and cable TV networks predict maximum broadband penetration. We find that a 10 percentage point increase in broadband penetration raised annual per capita growth by 0.9-1.5 percentage points. Results are robust to...
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作者：Salm, Martin
作者单位：Tilburg University
摘要：This study uses changes in pension laws for Union Army veterans as a natural experiment to estimate the causal effect of pensions on longevity, and to examine potential pathways underlying such a relationship. I examine the effects of the pension laws of 1907 and 1912, which granted old-age pensions to Union Army veterans. Veteran pensions reduced age-adjusted mortality by 11.5% for law of 1907 pensions and by 29.6% for law of 1912 pensions. Pensions reduced mortality for both acute and non-ac...
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作者：Cook, Philip J.; MacDonald, John
作者单位：Duke University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Private actions to avoid and prevent criminal victimisation and assist public law enforcement are vital inputs into the crime-control process. One form of private action, the business improvement district (BID), appears particularly promising. A BID is a non-profit organisation created by property owners to provide local public goods, usually including public safety. Our analysis of 30 Los Angeles BIDs demonstrates that the social benefits of BID expenditures on security are a large multiple (...
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作者：Milani, Fabio
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine
摘要：Psychological factors, market sentiments and less-than-fully-rational shifts in beliefs are widely believed to play a role in the economy. Yet, they are rarely considered in macroeconomic models. This article evaluates the empirical role of expectational shocks on business cycle fluctuations and relaxes the rational expectations assumption to exploit survey data on expectations in the estimation of a New Keynesian model, which allows for learning by economic agents. Expectation shocks affect t...
