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作者：Canzoneri, Matthew; Collard, Fabrice; Dellas, Harris; Diba, Behzad
作者单位：Georgetown University; University of Bern
摘要：Standard business cycle models have difficulties generating large, state-dependent fiscal multipliers. Employing a model of costly financial intermediation based on Curdia-Woodford, we show that fiscal multipliers can be strongly state dependent: fiscal expansions during recessions may lead to multiplier values exceeding two, while similar expansions during economic booms would produce values falling short of unity. This pattern obtains if the spread (the financial friction) is more sensitive ...
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作者：Challe, Edouard; Ragot, Xavier
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; European Central Bank; Bank of France; Paris School of Economics
摘要：We study the macroeconomic implications of time-varying precautionary savings within a general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints, aggregate shocks and uninsurable idiosyncratic unemployment risk. Our framework generates limited cross-sectional household heterogeneity as an equilibrium outcome, thereby making it possible to analyse the role of precautionary saving over the business cycle in an analytically tractable way. The time-series behaviour of aggregate consumption generated by...
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作者：Dalton, Patricio S.; Ghosal, Sayantan; Mani, Anandi
作者单位：Tilburg University; University of Glasgow; University of Warwick
摘要：We develop a theoretical framework to study the psychology of poverty and aspirations failure', defined as the failure to aspire to one's own potential. In our framework, rich and the poor persons share the same preferences and same behavioural bias in setting aspirations. We show that poverty can exacerbate the effects of this behavioural bias leading to aspirations failure and hence, a behavioural poverty trap. Aspirations failure is a consequence of poverty, rather than a cause. We specify ...
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作者：Dincecco, Mark; Katz, Gabriel
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Exeter
摘要：We present new evidence about the long-run relationship between state capacity - the fiscal and administrative power of states - and economic performance. Our database is novel and spans 11 European countries and four centuries from the Old Regime to World War I. We argue that national governments undertook two political transformations over this period: fiscal centralisation and limited government. We find a significant direct relationship between fiscal centralisation and economic growth. Fu...
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作者：Cavalcanti, Tiago; Tavares, Jose
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Getulio Vargas Foundation; Universidade Nova de Lisboa; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We use a growth model in which saving, fertility and labour market participation are endogenous, to quantify the cost that barriers to female labour force participation impose in terms of an economy's output. The model is calibrated to mimic the US economy's behaviour in the long-run. We find that a 50% increase in the gender wage gap leads to a 35% decrease in income per capita in the steady state. Using independent estimates of the female to male earnings ratio for a wide cross-section of co...
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作者：Arnold, Jens Matthias; Javorcik, Beata; Lipscomb, Molly; Mattoo, Aaditya
作者单位：University of Oxford; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD); University of Oxford; University of Virginia; The World Bank
摘要：Conventional explanations for the post-1991 growth of India's manufacturing sector focus on goods trade liberalisation and industrial delicensing. We demonstrate the powerful contribution of a neglected factor: India's policy reforms in services. The link between these reforms and the productivity of manufacturing firms is examined using panel data for about 4,000 Indian firms for the period 1993-2005. We find that banking, telecommunications, insurance and transport reforms all had significan...
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作者：Becker, Sascha O.; Boeckh, Katrin; Hainz, Christa; Woessmann, Ludger
作者单位：University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Munich; University of Augsburg
摘要：We hypothesise that the Habsburg Empire with its well-respected administration increased citizens' trust in local public services. In several Eastern European countries, communities on both sides of the long-gone Habsburg border have shared common formal institutions for a century now. We use a border specification and a two-dimensional geographic regression discontinuity design to identify from individuals living within a restricted band around the former border. We find that historical Habsb...
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作者：Jorda, Oscar; Taylor, Alan M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：After the Global Financial Crisis, a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data. This article, reconciles seemingly disparate estimates of multipliers within a unified and state-contingent framework. We achieve identification of causal effects with new propensity-score based methods for time series da...
