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作者：Arcidiacono, Peter; Sieg, Holger; Sloan, Frank
作者单位：Duke University; Carnegie Mellon University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This study investigates whether models of forward-looking behavior explain the observed patterns of heavy drinking and smoking of men in late middle age in the Health and Retirement Study better than myopic models. We develop and estimate a sequence of nested models that differ by their degree of forward-looking behavior. Our empirical findings suggest that forward looking models fit the data better than myopic models. These models also dominate other behavioral models based on out-of-sample p...
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作者：Devereux, Michael B.; Siu, Henry E.
作者单位：University of British Columbia; University of British Columbia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We present a tractable, dynamic general equilibrium model of state-dependent pricing and study the response of output and prices to monetary policy shocks. We find important nonlinearities in these responses. For empirically relevant shocks, this generates substantially different predictions from time-dependent pricing. We also find a distinct asymmetry with state-dependent pricing: Prices respond more to positive shocks than they do to negative shocks. This is due to a strategic linkage betwe...
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作者：Chakraborty, Shankha; Lahiri, Amartya
作者单位：University of Oregon; University of British Columbia
摘要：This article has two goals: (i) to reduce the 7-fold productivity differential required to explain the observed 33-fold income difference between the richest and poorest countries of the world; and (ii) to explain cross-country differences in the capital-output ratio. To achieve the first goal we modify the production function of the standard neoclassical growth model to include public capital whose provision is subject to intermediation costs. For the second goal we distort private investment...
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作者：Whelan, Karl
摘要：Despite their popularity as theoretical tools for illustrating the effects of nominal rigidities, some have questioned whether models based on staggered price contracts with rational expectations can match the persistence of the empirical inflation process. This article presents some general results about this class of models. It is shown that these models do not have a problem matching high autocorrelations for inflation. However, they fail to explain a key feature of reduced-form Phillips-cu...
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作者：Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman R.
作者单位：University of Warwick; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：We introduce block bootstrap techniques that are (first order) valid in recursive estimation frameworks. Thereafter, we present two examples where predictive accuracy tests are made operational using our new bootstrap procedures. In one application, we outline a consistent test for out-of-sample nonlinear Granger causality, and in the other we outline a test for selecting among multiple alternative forecasting models, all of which are possibly misspecified. In a Monte Carlo investigation, we c...
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作者：Landon-Lane, John S.; Robertson, Peter E.
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：Can barriers to capital accumulation account for large differences in GDP per capita ? We reconsider the claim that these barriers have an amplified effect on income levels in a model where both modern and traditional sector technologies are active. We show that this claim is not correct. We do find, however, that the removal of barriers to capital accumulation can cause large changes in the employment shares of labor. Thus the model can account for an important stylized fact of the developmen...
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作者：Persson, Mats; Siven, Claes-Henric
作者单位：Stockholm University; Stockholm University
摘要：Two real-world observations are not easily replicated in models of crime. First, although capital punishment is optimal in the standard Becker model, it is rarely observed in the real world. Second, criminal procedure and the evaluation of evidence vary across societies and historical periods, the standard of proof being sometimes very high and sometimes quite low. In this article, we develop a general equilibrium model of judicial procedure allowing for innocent persons being convicted. We sh...
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作者：Pissarides, Christopher A.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：I examine the dynamic evolutions of unemployment, hours of work, and the service share since the war in the United States and Europe. The theoretical model brings together all three and emphasizes technological growth. Computations show that the very low unemployment in Europe in the 1960s was due to the high productivity growth associated with technological catch-up. Productivity also played a role in the dynamics of hours, but a full explanation for the fast rise of service employment and th...
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作者：Segerstrom, Paul S.
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：This article presents an endogenous growth model that is designed to be roughly consistent with the experience of high-tech firms like Intel. In the model, industry leaders invest in R&D to improve their products, small firms invest in R&D to become industry leaders, and innovating becomes progressively more difficult over time. Consistent with the empirical evidence, the model implies that economic growth is independent of economy size and R&D intensity is independent of firm size. For plausi...
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作者：Boyarchenko, Svetlana; Levendorskii, Sergei
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：Continuous time models in the theory of real options give explicit formulas for optimal exercise strategies when options are simple and the price of an underlying asset follows a geometric Brownian motion. This article suggests a general, computationally simple approach to real options in discrete time. Explicit formulas are derived even for embedded options. Discrete time processes reflect the scarcity of observations in the data, and may account for fat tails and skewness of probability dist...
