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作者：Dressler, Scott J.
作者单位：Villanova University
摘要：A 1979 change in U.S. monetary policy coincided with a break in the cyclical behavior of monetary aggregates, while the cyclical behavior of all other real and nominal variables remained relatively constant. A model is developed to assess the quantitative importance of a change in monetary policy in accounting for these observations. The monetary authority's reaction function is estimated conditionally on the theoretical model and accounts for upward of 72-95% of all observed changes, includin...
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作者：Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman R.
作者单位：University of Warwick; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：We introduce block bootstrap techniques that are (first order) valid in recursive estimation frameworks. Thereafter, we present two examples where predictive accuracy tests are made operational using our new bootstrap procedures. In one application, we outline a consistent test for out-of-sample nonlinear Granger causality, and in the other we outline a test for selecting among multiple alternative forecasting models, all of which are possibly misspecified. In a Monte Carlo investigation, we c...
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作者：Landon-Lane, John S.; Robertson, Peter E.
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：Can barriers to capital accumulation account for large differences in GDP per capita ? We reconsider the claim that these barriers have an amplified effect on income levels in a model where both modern and traditional sector technologies are active. We show that this claim is not correct. We do find, however, that the removal of barriers to capital accumulation can cause large changes in the employment shares of labor. Thus the model can account for an important stylized fact of the developmen...
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作者：Persson, Mats; Siven, Claes-Henric
作者单位：Stockholm University; Stockholm University
摘要：Two real-world observations are not easily replicated in models of crime. First, although capital punishment is optimal in the standard Becker model, it is rarely observed in the real world. Second, criminal procedure and the evaluation of evidence vary across societies and historical periods, the standard of proof being sometimes very high and sometimes quite low. In this article, we develop a general equilibrium model of judicial procedure allowing for innocent persons being convicted. We sh...
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作者：Pissarides, Christopher A.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：I examine the dynamic evolutions of unemployment, hours of work, and the service share since the war in the United States and Europe. The theoretical model brings together all three and emphasizes technological growth. Computations show that the very low unemployment in Europe in the 1960s was due to the high productivity growth associated with technological catch-up. Productivity also played a role in the dynamics of hours, but a full explanation for the fast rise of service employment and th...
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作者：Degan, Arianna
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
摘要：This article develops and estimates a dynamic spatial model of voting. The distribution of voters' policy positions and candidates' valence are recovered using individual-level data on voting decisions in two consecutive presidential elections. The estimated model is used to provide an equilibrium interpretation of observed individual voting profiles and aggregate electoral outcomes as well as to conduct counterfactual experiments that assess the impact of candidates' policy positions, valence...
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作者：Segerstrom, Paul S.
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：This article presents an endogenous growth model that is designed to be roughly consistent with the experience of high-tech firms like Intel. In the model, industry leaders invest in R&D to improve their products, small firms invest in R&D to become industry leaders, and innovating becomes progressively more difficult over time. Consistent with the empirical evidence, the model implies that economic growth is independent of economy size and R&D intensity is independent of firm size. For plausi...
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作者：Athey, Susan; Imbens, Guido W.
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：Since the pioneering work by Daniel McFadden, utility-maximization-based multinomial response models have become important tools of empirical researchers. Various generalizations of these models have been developed to allow for unobserved heterogeneity in taste parameters and choice characteristics. Here we investigate how rich a specification of the unobserved components is needed to rationalize arbitrary choice patterns in settings with many individual decision makers, multiple markets, and ...
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作者：Cunha, Flavio; Heckman, James J.; Navarro, Salvador
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Pennsylvania; University College Dublin; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：This article extends the widely used ordered choice model by introducing stochastic thresholds and interval-specific outcomes. The model can be interpreted as a generalization of the GAFT (MPH) framework for discrete duration data that jointly models durations and outcomes associated with different stopping times. We establish conditions for nonparametric identification. We interpret the ordered choice model as a special case of a general discrete choice model and as a special case of a dynami...
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作者：Barbarino, Alessandro; Jovanovic, Boyan
作者单位：New York University
摘要：This article provides a microfoundation for the rise in optimism that seems to precede market crashes. Small, young markets are more likely to experience stock-price run-ups and crashes. We use a Zeira-Rob type of model in which demand size is uncertain. Optimism then grows rationally if traders' prior distribution over market size has a decreasing hazard. Such prior beliefs are appropriate if most new markets are duds and only a few reach a large size. The crash occurs when capacity outstrips...
