The cyclical effects of monetary policy regimes

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dressler, Scott J.
• 署名单位: Villanova University
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2354.2007.00437.x
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 551-573
• 关键词: transactions demand; business-cycle; risk-aversion; money; prices; cash; consumption; models; income; output

摘要

A 1979 change in U.S. monetary policy coincided with a break in the cyclical behavior of monetary aggregates, while the cyclical behavior of all other real and nominal variables remained relatively constant. A model is developed to assess the quantitative importance of a change in monetary policy in accounting for these observations. The monetary authority's reaction function is estimated conditionally on the theoretical model and accounts for upward of 72-95% of all observed changes, including inside money preceding the business cycle and a qualitative change in the cyclical behavior of the monetary base.