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作者：Bethencourt, Carlos; Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Universidad de la Laguna; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Between 1970 and 1990, the share of elderly widows living alone grew by 23.2% in the United States, whereas those living with their children decreased by a similar amount. We pose a variety of models for determining the living arrangements in which living together increases consumption because of economies of scale and may also provide utility directly. We estimate these models using the 1970 data and obtain an excellent fit. The estimated models predict that changes in the incomes of both the...
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作者：Boldrin, Michele; Levine, David K.
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Intellectual property (IP) protection involves a trade-off between the undesirability of monopoly and the desirable encouragement of creation and innovation. Optimal policy depends on the relative strength of these two forces. We give a quantitative assessment of current IP policies. We focus particularly on the scale of the market, showing that as it increases, due either to growth or to the expansion of trade, IP protection should be reduced.
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作者：Keister, Todd
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：Self-fulfilling expectations are commonly believed to play an important role in the transmission of currency crises across countries. Formal models of contagion based on multiple equilibria, however, have been criticized for failing to explain basic patterns observed in the data; these criticisms have been taken as evidence against the self-fulfilling view. This article argues that the importance of self-fulfilling beliefs is not so easily dismissed. A slightly richer model, based on the incom...
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作者：Ederington, Josh; McCalman, Phillip
作者单位：University of Kentucky; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
摘要：In this article, industrial evolution is driven by endogenous technology choices of firms, generating a rich environment that includes the possibility of a dramatic shakeout. The likelihood, magnitude, and timing of this shakeout are characterized and depend not only on the size of an innovation but also on cost structure. In this setting, trade liberalization reduces the likelihood of a shakeout, resulting in more stable industrial structures. However, when shakeouts arise in global markets, ...
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作者：Peersman, Gert; Straub, Roland
作者单位：European Central Bank; Ghent University
摘要：We use a model-based identification strategy to estimate the impact of technology shocks on hours worked and employment in the euro area. The sign restrictions applied in the vector autoregression (VAR) analysis are consistent with a large class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and are robust to parameter uncertainty. The results are in line with the conventional Real Business Cycle (RBC) interpretation that hours worked rise as a result of a positive technology shock. B...
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作者：Koop, Gary; Potter, Simon M.
作者单位：University of Strathclyde; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：This article discusses Bayesian inference in change-point models. The main existing approaches treat all change-points equally, a priori, using either a Uniform prior or an informative hierarchical prior. Both approaches assume a known number of change-points. Some undesirable properties of these approaches are discussed. We develop a new Uniform prior that allows some of the change-points to occur out of sample. This prior has desirable properties, can be interpreted as noninformative, and tr...
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作者：Chambers, Matthew; Garriga, Carlos; Schlagenhauf, Don E.
作者单位：State University System of Florida; Florida State University; University System of Maryland; Towson University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：This article accounts for the boom in homeownership from 1994 to 2005 by examining the roles of demographic changes and mortgage innovations. To measure the impact of these factors, we construct a quantitative general equilibrium overlapping generation model with housing. In the long-run, mortgage innovation accounts for between 56 and 70% of the increase whereas demographics account for a much smaller portion. We test this result by considering changes in mortgages after 1940. We find that th...
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作者：Canova, Fabio; Ciccarelli, Matteo
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：This article presents a method to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypotheses, and to conduct policy exercises in multicountry Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models with cross-unit interdependencies, unit-specific dynamics, and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian: A prior flexibly reduces the dimensionality of the model and puts structure on the time variations, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to obtain posterior distribution...
