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作者：Frankel, Jeffrey; Saravelos, George
作者单位：Harvard University; Deutsche Bank
摘要：We investigate whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the recent crisis, the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty papers from the previous literature on early warning indicators. Our motivation is to address suspicions that indicators found to be useful predictors in one round of crises are typically not useful to predict the nex...
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作者：Han, Jun; Liu, Runjuan; Zhang, Junsen
作者单位：University of Alberta; Nankai University; Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：This paper examines the impact of globalization on wage inequality using Chinese Urban Household Survey data from 1988 to 2008. Exploring two trade liberalization shocks, Deng Xiaoping's Southern Tour in 1992 and China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, we analyze whether regions more exposed to globalization experienced larger changes in wage inequality than less-exposed regions. Contrary to the predictions of the Heckscher-Ohlin model, we find that the WTO accession w...
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作者：Chang, Pao-Li; Lu, Chia-Hui
作者单位：Singapore Management University; City University of Hong Kong
摘要：This paper incorporates risk into the FDI decisions of firms. The risk of FDI failure increases with the gap between the South's technology frontier and the technology complexity of a firm's product. This leads to a double-crossing sorting pattern of FDI-firms of intermediate technology levels are more likely than others to undertake FDI. It is with the attempt to relax the upper bound of the technology content of FDI, we argue, that many FDI policies are created. The theory's predictions are ...
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作者：Demidova, Svetlana; Kee, Hiau Looi; Krishna, Kala
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; McMaster University; The World Bank; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper provides a new heterogeneous firm model for trade where firms differ in their productivity and experience different market demand shocks. The model incorporates the variations in trade policy, trade preferences, and the rules of origin needed to obtain them that are faced by Bangladeshi garment exporters to the US and EU. We estimate firm's productivity using an extension of the Olley Pakes procedure that accounts for the biases arising from both demand shocks and productivity being...
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作者：Conconi, Paola; Legros, Patrick; Newman, Andrew F.
作者单位：Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Boston University
摘要：We embed a simple incomplete-contracts model of organization design in a standard two-country perfectly-competitive trade model to examine how the liberalization of product and factor markets affects the ownership structure of firms. In our model, managers decide whether or not to integrate their firms, trading off the pecuniary benefits of coordinating production decisions with the private benefits of operating in their preferred ways. The price of output is a crucial determinant of this choi...
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作者：Klein, Michael W.
作者单位：Tufts University
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作者：Oldenski, Lindsay
作者单位：Georgetown University
摘要：Traditional proximity-concentration models of the decision to serve foreign markets through exports or FDI sales tend to overemphasize physical transport costs and market size while underemphasizing the cost of transmitting information. I augment those models with the importance of interacting with customers and communicating complex information within firms and use these characteristics to predict the location of production. Goods and services requiring direct communication with consumers are...
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作者：Cetorelli, Nicola; Goldberg, Linda S.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The recent crisis highlighted the importance of globally active banks in linking markets. One channel for this linkage is through how these banks manage liquidity across their entire banking organization. We document that funds regularly flow between parent banks and their affiliates in diverse foreign markets. We show that parent banks, when hit by a funding shock, reallocate liquidity in the organization according to a locational pecking order. Affiliate locations that are important for the ...
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作者：Dong, Wei
作者单位：Bank of Canada
摘要：In theory, nominal exchange rate movements can lead to expenditure switching when they generate changes in the relative prices of goods across countries. This paper explores whether the expenditure-switching role of exchange rates has changed in the current episode of significant global imbalances. We develop a multi-sector two-country model for the United States and the G6 countries, with the rest of the world captured by exogenous price and demand shocks, and estimate the model over two sub-...
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作者：Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Rey, Helene; Truempler, Kai
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of London; London Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper studies the geography of wealth transfers between 2007Q4 and 2008Q4, at the height of the global financial crisis. We construct valuation changes on bilateral external positions in equity, direct investment and portfolio debt to measure who benefited and who lost on their external exposure. We find a very diverse set of fortunes governed by the structure of countries' external portfolios. In particular, we are able to relate the gains and losses on debt portfolios to the country's e...
