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最新文章

• Hysteresis in a simple model of currency substitution AI翻译
  作者：Uribe, M
  摘要：A cash-in-advance model in which the cost of buying goods with a foreign currency is decreasing in the economy's accumulated experience in transacting in the foreign currency is shown to display hysteresis in money velocity; that is, a temporary increase in expected inflation can cause a permanent increase in velocity. In addition, the model implies that the domestic currency does not have to dominate the foreign currency in rate of return to induce agents to stop using the foreign currency. F...
• The New Zealand approach to rules and discretion in monetary policy AI翻译
  作者：Archer, DJ
  摘要：The legislative framework under which the Reserve Bank of New Zealand operates was changed in 1989, to one providing for a tightly constructed target (rule), with discretion over instrument choice. The rationale for the change rests on the idea that damage to long-run growth would follow if monetary policy were to pay active attention to the short-run output and employment consequences of monetary policy actions. The rule now in place thus prohibits monetary policy from active consideration of...
• Macroeconomic uncertainty, precautionary saving, and the current account AI翻译
  作者：Ghosh, AR; Ostry, JD
  作者单位：International Monetary Fund
  摘要：The relationship between current account developments and changes in the macroeconomic environment is a key issue in open economy macroeconomics. This paper extends the standard intertemporal model of the current account to incorporate the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on external saving behavior. It is shown that the greater the uncertainty in national cash flow, defined as output less investment less government consumption, the greater will be the incentive for precautionary saving an...
• Crucial issues concerning central bank independence AI翻译
  作者：McCallum, BT
  作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：This paper argues, first, that it is inappropriate to presume that central banks will, in the absence of any tangible precommitment technology, inevitably behave in a 'discretionary' fashion that implies an inflationary bias. Furthermore, there is no necessary tradeoff between 'flexibility and commitment'. Second, to the extent that the absence of any precommitment technology is nevertheless a problem, it will apply to a consolidated central bank-plus-government entity as well as to the centra...
• Monetary targeting in Germany: The stability of monetary policy and of the monetary system AI翻译
  作者：Issing, O
  摘要：For more than two decades the Deutsche Bundesbank has followed a strategy of pre-announcing targets for the growth in broad money. Such consistency has not conflicted with limited flexibility in policy implementation. The stable policy environment may have contributed to the stability of the monetary system in general and money demand in particular, thus facilitating the maintenance of the strategy.
• Introduction: Rules and discretion in monetary policy AI翻译
  作者：[Anonymous]
• The nature of precautionary wealth AI翻译
  作者：Carroll, CD; Samwick, AA
  作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：This paper uses the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to provide some of the first direct evidence that wealth is systematically higher for consumers with predictably greater income uncertainty. However, the apparent pattern of precautionary wealth is not consistent with a standard parameterization of the life cycle model in which consumers are patient enough to begin saving for retirement early in life; wealth is estimated to be far less sensitive to uncertainty than implied by that model. Inste...
• Central bank preferences and macroeconomic equilibrium AI翻译
  作者：Broadbent, B; Barro, RJ
  摘要：We investigate the behavior of an optimizing monetary authority in an economy described by a simple AS/AD model. We develop a simple methodology for deriving the optimal policy, and the associated model solution, for various forms of the authority's objectives. In our empirical work, we focus on one of these specifications, in which the authority cares about both the rate of inflation and the level of price innovations (which boost real output in our model), along the lines of Barro and Gordon...
• The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums AI翻译
  作者：Bekaert, G; Hodrick, RJ; Marshall, DA
  作者单位：Columbia University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
  摘要：In an effort to explain simultaneously the excess return predictability observed in equity, bond and foreign exchange markets, we incorporate preferences exhibiting first-order risk aversion into a general equilibrium two-country monetary model. When we calibrate the model to US and Japanese data, we find that first-order risk aversion substantially increases excess return predictability. However, this increased predictability is insufficient to match the data. We conclude that the observed pa...
• Monetary targets as a policy rule: Lessons from the Swiss experience AI翻译
  作者：Rich, G
  摘要：This paper provides a survey and analysis of Swiss monetary policy since the shift to a floating exchange rate in 1973. Although the Swiss National Bank (SNB), by international comparison, managed to achieve a high degree of price stability, it could not prevent temporary bursts of inflation. I argue that the problem lay in an inappropriate SNB response to such disturbances as unexpected exchange rate shocks, and show that in constructing optimum feedback rules, the SNB must take account of th...