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作者：Bruno, M; Easterly, W
作者单位：The World Bank; Hebrew University of Jerusalem
摘要：Recent articles in the new growth literature find that growth and inflation are negatively related, a finding that is usually thought to reflect a long-run relationship. But the inflation-growth correlation is only present with high frequency data and with extreme inflation observations; there is no cross-sectional correlation between long-run averages of growth and inflation. We propose that examination of discrete high inflation crises (periods when inflation is above some threshold, which w...
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作者：Driffill, J; Sola, M
作者单位：University of Southampton; University of London; Birkbeck University London; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; University of London; London Business School
摘要：Froot and Obstfeld (1991) allow for an intrinsic bubble in stock prices, using approximately a century of annual data for the US, in an attempt to model the widely documented deviations from the prices predicted by present values or fundamentals, However they assume that the log of real dividends follows a constant random walk with drift over the whole period. We show that this assumption is invalid, and that a Markov-switching model is a more appropriate representation of dividends. We then g...
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作者：Dahan, M; Hercowitz, Z
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; Bank of Israel
摘要：An empirical investigation of the effects of fiscal policy on saving is carried out using Israeli data, which display large variability in both the saving rate and the fiscal variables. The framework is a small open economy model with distortionary taxation. The theoretical analysis of the partial effect of each fiscal variable on the national saving rate takes into account the necessary adjustment in future taxes. The present model predicts, for example, that the income-tax rate should have a...
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作者：Owen, AL; Weil, DN
作者单位：Hamilton College; Brown University
摘要：We examine a model in which per capita income, inequality, intergenerational mobility, and returns to education are all determined endogenously. Individuals earn wages depending on their ability, which is a random variable. They purchase an education with transfers received from their parents, and are subject to liquidity constraints. In the model, multiple steady-state equilibria are possible: countries with identical tastes and technologies can reach differing rates of mobility, inequality a...
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作者：Smith, BD; Wang, C
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：We consider the problem of an insurer who enters into a repeated relationship with a set of risk averse agents in the presence of ex post verification costs, The insurer wishes to minimize the expected cost of providing these agents a certain expected utility level. We characterize the optimal contract between the insurer and the insured, agents. We then apply the analysis to the provision of deposit insurance. Our results suggest - in a deposit insurance context - that it may be optima. to ut...
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作者：den Haan, WJ; Spear, SA
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：In this paper, we document that the volatility of monthly real interest rates is characterized by long periods of relatively constant volatility, interrupted by short periods of sharp increases in volatility. Moreover, volatility is correlated with measures of economic activity and financial market frictions. In particular, the conditional variance of real interest rates is negatively correlated with the growth rate of industrial production and positively correlated with the spread between the...
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作者：Ziliak, JP
作者单位：University of Oregon
摘要：Food consumption in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics is used as a proxy for total consumption in many applications in economics, including tests of the permanent-income hypothesis, tests of separability between consumption and leisure, and tests of intergenerational altruism. Food, however, explains only a small fraction of the variation in total consumption. I propose a measure of composite consumption based on predicted wealth and compare it both to food consumption and to Skinner's (1987)...
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作者：Rossana, RJ
作者单位：Wayne State University
摘要：This paper explores the determinants of the adjustment matrix in error correction models within two intertemporal models of the firm. In a production smoothing model of inventories, it is shown that the adjustment matrix contains the speed of adjustment of inventories as conjectured in previous work but this parameter matrix also contains the parameters from the autoregressive polynomials associated with the stochastic, unobservable shocks in the model. Two empirical examples are provided sugg...
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作者：Aiyagari, SR; McGrattan, ER
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Rochester
摘要：We find that the welfare gains to being at the optimum quantity of debt rather than the current US level are small, and, therefore, concerns regarding the high level of debt in the US economy may be misplaced. This finding is based on a model of a large number of infinitely lived households whose saving behavior is influenced by precautionary saving motives and borrowing constraints. This model incorporates a different role for government debt than is found in standard models, and it captures ...
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作者：Canova, F
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper examines the business cycle properties of a small set of a real US macroeconomic time series using a variety of detrending methods. It is shown that both quantitatively and qualitatively 'stylized facts' of US business cycles vary widely across detrending methods and that alternative detrending filters extract different types of information from the data. Implications and suggestions for current macroeconomic practice are provided. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
