Inflation crises and long-run growth

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bruno, M; Easterly, W
• 署名单位: The World Bank; Hebrew University of Jerusalem
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00063-9
• 发表日期: 1998
• 页码: 3-26
• 关键词: inflation

摘要

Recent articles in the new growth literature find that growth and inflation are negatively related, a finding that is usually thought to reflect a long-run relationship. But the inflation-growth correlation is only present with high frequency data and with extreme inflation observations; there is no cross-sectional correlation between long-run averages of growth and inflation. We propose that examination of discrete high inflation crises (periods when inflation is above some threshold, which we propose to be 40% annual) helps unravel these empirical paradoxes. We establish a robust finding that growth falls sharply during discrete high inflation crises, then recovers rapidly and strongly after inflation falls. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.