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作者：Engen, EM; Gruber, J
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Models of precautionary saving imply that households will hold more assets when faced with greater income uncertainty. However, previous empirical studies of income uncertainty have produced somewhat mixed support for the precautionary saving hypothesis. In this paper, we note that differences in the state-contingent income stream available to workers through the unemployment insurance (UI) program provides an excellent source of variation for testing the presence of a precautionary savings mo...
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作者：Kozicki, S; Tinsley, PA
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; University of Cambridge
摘要：This paper links the term structure to perceptions of monetary policy. Long-horizon forecasts of short rates required by no-arbitrage term structure models are heavily influenced by the endpoints, or limiting conditional forecasts, of the short rate process. Common assumptions that the short rate is mean-reverting or contains a unit root are shown to generate unrealistic yield predictions. Failures occur because these assumptions inadequately account for historical shifts in market perceptions...
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作者：A'Hearn, B; Woitek, U
作者单位：University of Glasgow; Franklin & Marshall College
摘要：This paper establishes stylized facts about business cycles in the late 19th century, using spectral analysis techniques which allow an intuitive description and analysis of cyclical structure in economic fluctuations. Analysis of industrial production data for 13 countries permits the following generalizations. In the advanced North Atlantic economies, a fairly regular long cycle with a periodicity of 7-10 years is identified in all countries. This component explains a substantial fraction of...
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作者：Boyd, JH; Levine, R; Smith, BD
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：A growing theoretical literature describes mechanisms whereby even predictable increases in the rate of inflation interfere with the ability of the financial sector to allocate resources effectively. This paper empirically assesses these predictions. The evidence indicates that there is a significant, and economically important, negative relationship between inflation and both banking sector development and equity market activity. Further, the relationship is nonlinear. As inflation rises, the...
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作者：Bomfim, AN
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：I analyze the business cycle implications of noisy economic indicators in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model. Two main results emerge. First, measurement error in preliminary data releases can have a quantitatively important effect on economic fluctuations. For instance, under efficient signal-extraction, the introduction of accurate economic indicators would make aggregate output 10-30 percent more volatile than suggested by the post-war experience of the U.S. economy. Second,...
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作者：Aadland, D
作者单位：Utah System of Higher Education; Utah State University
摘要：This paper investigates how the choice of timing interval within a standard real business cycle (RBC) model can help resolve two well-known labor-market puzzles. Standard quarterly RBC models have had difficulty replicating certain empirical regularities arising from the US labor market. A weekly version of the RBC model is able to partially resolve these puzzles. The improvement in the performance of the model is due to the interaction between theoretical modifications to the standard RBC mod...
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作者：Huang, KXD; Liu, Z
作者单位：Utah System of Higher Education; Utah State University; Emory University
摘要：Recent empirical studies reveal that monetary shocks can cause persistent fluctuations in aggregate output. In this paper, we propose a mechanism to help generate such persistence. Our dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a vertical input-output structure, with staggered price contracts at each stage of production. Working through the input-output relations and the timing of firms' pricing decisions, the model generates persistent fluctuations in aggregate output and the obser...
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作者：Camera, G
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：An inter-governmental body is encouraging the replacement of currency with the objective of discouraging illegal economic activities. This policy is analyzed in a search-theoretic model where individuals choose legal or illegal production, settle trades via monetary or costly intermediated exchange, and where the government imperfectly monitors monetary transactions. Stationary monetary equilibria with both legal and illegal productions exist, in which case the over-provision of currency may i...
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作者：Chang, R
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：Economic reforms are often postponed even if they ale clearly beneficial. I argue that this may reflect a government's need to improve its reputation before it can enact a reform successfully. I study a model in which the government has a commitment problem in setting taxes that pay for reform. Market expectations about future policy, which determine investment, become fundamental for the reform's success. Reform may be postponed as the government builds credibility with a period of low taxes....
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作者：Ireland, PN
作者单位：Boston College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper focuses on the specification and stability of a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model of the American business cycle with sticky prices. Maximum likelihood estimates reveal that the data prefer a version of the model in which adjustment costs apply to the price level but not to the inflation rate. Formal hypothesis tests detect instability in the estimated parameters, particularly in estimates of the representative household's discount factor. Evidently, more detailed descr...
