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作者：Nelson, E
作者单位：Bank of England
摘要：This paper considers the role of monetary aggregates in modern macroeconomic models of the New Keynesian type. The focus is on future model developments that are suggested by the monetarist literature, and that in addition seem justified empirically. Both the relation between money and inflation, and between money and aggregate demand, are considered. Regarding the first relation, it is argued that both the mean and the dynamics of inflation in present-day models are governed by money growth. ...
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作者：Ireland, PN
作者单位：Boston College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：What explains the correlations between nominal and real variables in the postwar US data? Are these correlations indicative of significant nominal rigidity? Or do they simply reflect the particular way that monetary policyrnakers react to developments in the real economy? To answer these questions, this paper uses maximum likelihood to estimate a model of endogenous money. This model allows, but does not require, nominal prices to be sticky. The results show that nominal price rigidity, over a...
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作者：Fujiki, H
作者单位：Bank of Japan
摘要：Freeman (Am. Econom. Rev. 86 (1996a) 1126) shows that an elastic money supply enhances the efficiency of monetary equilibrium by clearing default-free debts at par value in the domestic credit market. This research adds a foreign exchange market to Freeman's model and extends his analysis into a two-country model, in which the arrival rates of agents are not equal between the two countries. In this model, an elastic money supply in the foreign exchange market to clear the exchange of fiat moni...
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作者：Svensson, LEO
作者单位：Princeton University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Engerman, SL
作者单位：University of Rochester
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作者：Camera, G; Winkler, J
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：We endogenize circulation of currencies and price formation in a decentralized trading environment with two countries and two currencies. In equilibrium sellers of homogeneous goods may post prices in the national or also in the foreign currency, given unobservable buyers' valuations. We prove that, under different monetary regimes, the absence of well integrated international goods markets doesn't necessarily imply a violation of the law of one price. We also illustrate the behavior of prices...
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作者：Woodford, M
作者单位：Princeton University
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作者：Forni, M; Hallin, M; Lippi, M; Reichlin, L
作者单位：Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Sapienza University Rome; Universite Libre de Bruxelles
摘要：This paper uses a large data set, consisting of 447 monthly macroeconomic time series concerning the main countries of the Euro area to simulate out-of-sample predictions of the Euro-area industrial production and the harmonized inflation index and to evaluate the role of financial variables in forecasting. We considered two models which allow forecasting based on large panels of time series: Forni et al. (Rev. Econom. Statist. 82 (2000) 540; Mimeo (2001b)) and Stock and Watson (Mimeo (1999))....
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作者：Laxton, D; Pesenti, P
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; International Monetary Fund; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper develops a variant of the IMF's Global Economic Model suitable to analyze macroeconomic dynamics in open economies, and uses it to assess the effectiveness of Taylor rules and inflation-forecast-based (IFB) rules in stabilizing variability in output and inflation. Our findings suggest that a simple IFB rule that does not rely upon any direct estimates of the equilibrium real interest rate and places a relatively high weight on the inflation forecast may perform better in small open ...
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作者：Galí, J; López-Salido, JD; Vallés, J
作者单位：Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Banco de Espana
摘要：The purpose of the present paper is twofold. First, we characterize the Fed's systematic response to technology shocks and its implications for U.S. output, hours and inflation. Second, we evaluate the extent to which those responses can be accounted for by a simple monetary policy rule (including the optimal one) in the context of a standard business cycle model with sticky prices. Our main results can be described as follows: First, we detect significant differences across periods in the res...
