Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Laxton, D; Pesenti, P
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; International Monetary Fund; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3932(03)00057-6
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 1109-1146
• 关键词: Monetary policy; Taylor rule; Flexible exchange rates; transition countries; Emerging markets

摘要

This paper develops a variant of the IMF's Global Economic Model suitable to analyze macroeconomic dynamics in open economies, and uses it to assess the effectiveness of Taylor rules and inflation-forecast-based (IFB) rules in stabilizing variability in output and inflation. Our findings suggest that a simple IFB rule that does not rely upon any direct estimates of the equilibrium real interest rate and places a relatively high weight on the inflation forecast may perform better in small open economies than conventional Taylor rules. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.