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作者：Whelan, Karl
作者单位：University College Dublin
摘要：If asset returns are predictable, then rational expectations and the arithmetic of budget constraints together imply that these predictable changes in returns should affect current consumption. This paper presents a new framework linking consumption, income, and observable assets to expectations of future asset returns. Relative to previous work on this topic, the framework proposed in this paper has a number of advantages including not relying on untestable assumptions concerning unobservable...
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作者：Hall, Robert E.
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
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作者：Rupert, Peter
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
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作者：Bodenstein, Martin; Erceg, Christopher J.; Guerrieri, Luca
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：In a stylized DSGE model with an energy sector, the optimal policy response to an adverse energy supply shock implies a rise in core inflation, a larger rise in headline inflation, and a decline in wage inflation. The optimal policy is well approximated by policies that stabilize the output gap, but also by a wide array of dual mandate policies that are not overly aggressive in stabilizing core inflation. Finally, policies that react to a forecast of headline inflation following a temporary en...
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作者：Del Negro, Marco; Schorfheide, Frank
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We discuss prior elicitation for the parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, and provide a method for constructing prior distributions for a Subset of these parameters from beliefs about steady-state relationships and second moments of the endogenous variables. The empirical application documents how the specification of the prior distribution affects our assessment of the relative importance of price and wage rigidities in a New Keynesian DSGE model. (C) 2008 Elsev...
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作者：Burstein, Ariel; Kurz, Christopher; Tesar, Linda
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Countries that are more engaged in production sharing exhibit higher bilateral manufacturing output correlations. We use data on trade flows between US multinationals and their affiliates as well as trade between the United States and Mexican maquiladoras to measure production-sharing trade and its link with the business cycle. We then develop a quantitative model of international business cycles that generates a positive link between the extent of vertically integrated production-sharing trad...
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作者：Chen, Haipeng (Allan); Levy, Daniel; Ray, Sourav; Bergen, Mark
作者单位：Bar Ilan University; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; Mays Business School; McMaster University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Bologna
摘要：Analyses of a large retail scanner price data set reveal a new and surprising regularity small price increases occur more frequently than small price decreases for price changes of up to 10 0. That is, we find asymmetric price adjustment in the small. Furthermore, it turns out that inflation offers only a partial explanation for the finding. Indeed, substantial proportion of the asymmetry remains unexplained, even after accounting for the inflation. For example, the asymmetry holds also after ...
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作者：Fuster, Luisa; Imrohoroglu, Ayse; Imrohoroglu, Selahattin
作者单位：University of Southern California; University of Toronto
摘要：We compute the welfare effects of different revenue-neutral tax reforms that eliminate capital income taxation in two general equilibrium models calibrated to the U.S. economy. In our dynastic model, the reform with the largest welfare gain is the one that eliminates all income taxation and increases the consumption tax to 35%; 75% of the population alive at the time of the reform benefit from it. Individuals use intervivos transfers and bequests to redistribute the long-run benefits. In a pur...
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作者：Ohanian, Lee; Raffo, Andrea; Rogerson, Richard
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：We document large differences in trend changes ill hours worked across OECD countries between 1956 and 2004. We assess the extent to which these changes are consistent With the intratemporal first order condition from the neoclassical growth model, augmented with taxes on labor income and Consumption expenditures. We find that the model can account for most of the trend changes in hours worked measured in the data. Differences in taxes explain much Of the variation in hours worked both over ti...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Golosov, Mikhail; Tsyvinski, Aleh
作者单位：Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We provide a simple framework for comparing market allocations with government-regulated allocations. Governments can collect information about individuals' types and enforce transfers across individuals. Markets (without significant government intervention) have to rely on transactions that are ex post beneficial for individuals. Consequently, governments achieve better risk sharing and consumption smoothing than markets. However, politicians in charge of collective decisions can use the cent...
