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作者：Andolfatto, David
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Simon Fraser University
摘要：For competitive economies in which the real rate of return on money is too low, the standard prescription is to engineer a deflation that is, to operate monetary policy according to the Friedman rule. Implicit in this recommendation is the availability of a lump-sum tax instrument. In this paper, I view lump-sum tax obligations as a form of debt subject to default. While individuals may want to honor such obligations ex ante, a lack of commitment (the sine qua non of modern monetary theory) ma...
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作者：Rocheteau, Guillaume; Wright, Randall
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：This study analyzes economies with an essential role for liquid assets in the exchange process. The model can generate multiple stationary equilibria, across which asset prices, market participation, capitalization, output and welfare are positively related. It can also generate a variety of nonstationary equilibria, even when fundamentals are deterministic and time invariant, including periodic, chaotic and stochastic (sunspot) equilibria with recurrent market crashes. Some equilibria have as...
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作者：Alvarez-Parra, Fernando; Brandao-Marques, Luis; Toledo, Manuel
作者单位：University of Central Venezuela; International Monetary Fund; Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
摘要：Business cycles in emerging economies display very volatile consumption and strongly countercyclical trade balance. We show that aggregate consumption in these economies is not more volatile than output once durables are accounted for. Then, we present and estimate a real business cycles model for a small open economy that accounts for this empirical observation. Our results show that the role of permanent shocks to aggregate productivity in explaining cyclical fluctuations in emerging economi...
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作者：Favilukis, Jack; Lin, Xiaoji
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：Long-run productivity risk - shocks to the growth rate of productivity - offers an alternative to microfrictions explanations of aggregate investment non-linearities, in particular the heteroscedasticity of investment rate. Additionally, consistent with the data, these shocks imply that investment rate is history dependent (rising through expansions), its growth is positively autocorrelated, and it is positively correlated with output growth at various leads and lags. A standard model with sho...
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作者：Yang, Dennis Tao; Zhu, Xiaodong
作者单位：University of Virginia; University of Toronto
摘要：This paper develops a two-sector model that illuminates the role played by agricultural modernization in the transition from stagnation to growth. When agriculture relies on traditional technology, industrial development reduces the relative price of industrial products, but has a limited effect on per capita income because most labor has to remain in farming. Growth is not sustainable until this relative price drops below a certain threshold, thus inducing farmers to adopt modern technology t...
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作者：Gopinath, Gita
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Barakchian, S. Mandi; Crowe, Christopher
作者单位：Sharif University of Technology
摘要：The evidence suggests that monetary policy post 1988 became more forward-looking, invalidating the identifying assumptions in conventional methods of measuring monetary policy's effects, leading to spurious and unlikely results for this period. We propose a new identification scheme that uses factors extracted from Fed Funds futures to measure exogenous changes in policy. Using this shock series in a VAR, we recover the contractionary effect of monetary tightening on output. Moreover, we find ...
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作者：Yu, Jianfeng
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：A sentiment-based model of the exchange rate is proposed to understand the forward premium puzzle. Agents over- or under-estimate the growth rate of the economy. All else equal, when perceived domestic growth is higher than perceived foreign growth, the domestic interest rate is higher than the foreign interest rate. At the same time, an econometrician would expect an increase in the home currency value. Together, the model with investor misperception can account for the forward premium puzzle...
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作者：Tsyrennikov, Viktor
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：I analyze a model with moral hazard and limited enforcement in a small open economy. I find that when state contingent contracting is allowed adding the moral hazard friction improves the model's predictions along several dimensions. First, it justifies why non-contingent debt is an optimal way to finance an emerging economy. Second, it explains the limited consumption risk-sharing and high, volatile and counter-cyclical interest rates. Third, it generates realistic crisis-like dynamics in whi...
