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作者：Hao, Tongtong; Sun, Ruiqi; Tombe, Trevor; Zhu, Xiaodong
作者单位：Sun Yat Sen University; University of Toronto; Tsinghua University; University of Calgary
摘要：Between 20 0 0 and 2015, China's aggregate income quadrupled, its provincial income inequality fell by a third, and its share of employment in agriculture fell by a half. Internal migration is central to this transformation, with the number of internal migrant workers reaching 300 million by 2015. Combining rich data on migration with a spatial general equilibrium model of China's economy, we quantify the size and the impact of internal migration cost reductions in China between 20 0 0 and 201...
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作者：Brooks, Wyatt; Dovis, Alessandro
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Are credit frictions a barrier to gains from trade liberalization? We find that the answer to this depends on whether or not the debt limits are endogenous and respond to profit opportunities. If so, exporters expand and non-exporters shrink efficiently allowing for the same percentage gains from reform as with perfect credit markets. If debt limits do not respond, reallocation is reduced and gains are lower. We then use data from a trade liberalization to distinguish between the two models. W...
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作者：Cravino, Javier; Lan, Ting; Levchenko, Andrei A.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Monetary shocks have distributional consequences if they affect relative prices across goods consumed by different households. We document that the prices of the goods consumed by high-income households are stickier and less volatile than those of the goods consumed by middle-income households. Following a monetary policy shock, the estimated impulse responses of high-income households' consumer price indices are about one-third smaller than those of the middle-income households. We evaluate t...
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作者：Prettner, Klaus; Strulik, Holger
作者单位：University Hohenheim; University of Gottingen
摘要：The effects of automation on economic growth, education, and inequality are analyzed using an R&D-driven growth model with endogenous education in which high-skilled workers are complements to machines and low-skilled workers are substitutes for machines. The model predicts that automation leads to an increasing share of college graduates, increasing income and wealth inequality, and a declining labor share. We show that standard policy suggestions for the age of automation can trigger uninten...
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作者：Andreasen, Martin M.; Jorgensen, Kasper
作者单位：Aarhus University; CREATES; Danish Finance Institute; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：A new utility kernel for Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences is proposed to disentangle the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES), the relative risk aversion (RRA), and the timing attitude. These new preferences resolve two puzzles in the long-run risk model, where consumption growth is too strongly correlated with the price-dividend ratio and the risk-free rate. The proposed preferences also enable a New Keynesian model to match equity and bond premia with a low RRA of 5. Importantly, the m...
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作者：Buchheim, Lukas; Watzinger, Martin; Wilhelm, Matthias
作者单位：University of Munich
摘要：Does investment create more jobs in slack than in tight labor markets? We study this question using data from a photovoltaic investment scheme. Comparing counties with high and low unemployment over time and across space, we find that (sic)100,000 of investment created 1.2 job-years in slack markets and fewer than 0.5 job-years in tight markets. This corresponds to labor earnings multipliers of 1.1 and below 0.5, respectively. These differences are not driven by changes in investment compositi...
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作者：Guerreiro, Joao; Rebelo, Sergio; Teles, Pedro
作者单位：Northwestern University; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Banco de Portugal; Universidade Catolica Portuguesa; Banco de Portugal
摘要：We study the immigration policy that maximizes the welfare of the native population in an economy where the government designs an optimal redistributive welfare system and supplies public goods. We show that when the government can design different tax systems for immigrants and natives, free immigration is optimal. It is also optimal to use the tax system to encourage the immigration of high-skill workers and discourage that of low-skill workers. When immigrants and natives must be treated al...
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作者：Boehm, Christoph E.
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：A large and conventional class of macroeconomic models predicts that short-lived government investment shocks have a smaller fiscal multiplier than government consumption shocks. I test this prediction in a panel of OECD countries using real-time forecasts of government consumption and investment to purify changes in purchases of their predicted components. Consistent with theory, the estimated government investment multiplier is near zero and the government consumption multiplier approximatel...
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作者：Lin, Xiaoji; Palazzo, Berardino; Yang, Fan
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Connecticut
摘要：A dynamic model featuring a stochastic technology frontier shows significant impact of technology adoption for asset prices. In equilibrium, firms operating with old capital are riskier because costly technology adoption restricts their flexibility in upgrading to the latest technology, making them more exposed to technology frontier shocks. Consistent with the model predictions, a long-short portfolio sorted on firm-level capital age earns an average value-weighted return of 9% per year among...
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作者：Chemla, Gilles; Hennessy, Christopher A.
作者单位：Imperial College London; Imperial College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London Business School; University of London; London Business School
摘要：Policy experiments using large microeconomic datasets have recently gained ground in macroeconomics. Imposing rational expectations, we examine robustness of evidence derived from ideal natural experiments applied to atomistic agents in dynamic settings. Paradoxically, once experimental evidence is viewed as sufficiently clean to use, it then becomes contaminated by ex post endogeneity: Measured responses depend upon priors and the objective function into which evidence is fed. Moreover, agent...
