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作者：Claus, Edda; Viet Hoang Nguyen
作者单位：Wilfrid Laurier University; University of Melbourne
摘要：Applying a latent factor model to survey expectations data on economic conditions, unemployment, family finances, and readiness to spend reveals that, following a monetary policy shock, consumer expectations adjust in the direction predicted by standard models. Further, expectations respond asymmetrically to policy tightenings or easings, are sluggish, and are consistent with an income channel of monetary policy. Inflation expectations are at first anchored, but significantly adjust in the lon...
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作者：Queralto, Albert
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Output and productivity fall persistently following financial crises, and innovation effort s also decline in these episodes. After reviewing the evidence, this paper introduces a quantitative macroeconomic model featuring endogenous growth in total factor productivity (TFP) through innovation, in which innovators' financing is subject to frictions. These frictions become more severe as financial sector balance sheets deteriorate, increasing the cost of credit for innovators and thereby loweri...
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作者：Chari, V. V.; Dovis, Alessandro; Kehoe, Patrick J.
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Pennsylvania; Stanford University; University of London; University College London; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The traditional Mundellian criterion for optimal currency areas, which implicitly assumes commitment to monetary policy, is that countries with similar shocks should form unions. Without such commitment a new criterion emerges: countries with dissimilar temptation shocks, namely those that exacerbate time inconsistency problems, should form unions. Crucially, all countries influence policy in that policy is chosen either cooperatively or by majority rule. Our model, applied to the European Mon...
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作者：Miyamoto, Wataru; Thuy Lan Nguyen
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; Santa Clara University
摘要：News shocks work through changes in expectations, so data on expectations contain important information for identification of news shocks. We demonstrate this by estimating a DSGE model augmented with news shocks using U.S. data between 1955Q1 and 2006Q4. News shocks, especially those with long anticipation horizons, generate modest output fluctuations before fundamental changes. The precision of the estimated news shocks greatly improves when data on expectations are used. These results arise...
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作者：Mitkov, Yuliyan
作者单位：University of Bonn
摘要：I study how the distribution of wealth influences the government's response to systemic banking crises and shapes financial fragility. Distributional concerns tend to make full government guarantees of deposits credible for relatively poor individuals, but not for wealthier individuals. As a result, wealthier individuals have a stronger incentive to panic and, in equilibrium, the institutions in which they invest are endogenously more likely to experience runs and receive partial bailouts, eve...
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作者：Ales, Laurence
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University
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作者：Jorda, Oscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Bonn; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The trilemma of international finance explains why interest rates in countries that fix their exchange rates and allow unfettered cross-border capital flows are outside the monetary authority's control. Based on this exogenous source of variation, we show that monetary interventions have large and significant effects using historical panel data since 1870. The causal effect of these interventions depends on whether: (1) the economy is above or below potential; (2) inflation is low; and (3) the...
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作者：vom Lehn, Christian
作者单位：Brigham Young University
摘要：A common hypothesis for labor market polarization is that technological progress has decreased the price of machines which are substitutable with middle skilled jobs and complementary to higher and lower skilled jobs. I quantitatively evaluate this hypothesis in a dynamic general equilibrium model. I find that the near constant elasticities of labor demand in the standard technology hypothesis and the observed dynamics of the price of machines are inconsistent with rapid polarization pre-2000 ...
