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作者：Mankiw, N. Gregory; Reis, Ricardo
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks in an international vector autoregression. Using high-frequency data on the prices of Fed Funds futures contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of the FOMC-day Federal Reserve policy decision on financial variables, such as the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate. We show how this information can be used to achieve identification without having to make the usual strong assumption ...
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作者：Frankel, Jeffrey; Giavazzi, Francesco
摘要：Voting theory generally concludes that, in first-past-the-post elections, all votes should go to effective candidates (Duverger's Law), and parties should adopt a similar platform (median voter theorem). However, such predictions are not always met in practice. We show why divergence and vote dispersion is a natural outcome when (a) parties are opportunistic, (b) there is uncertainty on the position of the median voter and (c) elections are repeated. Voting for losers increases the information...
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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; van Wincoop, Eric
作者单位：University of Lausanne; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：It is well known that the extent of pass-through of exchange rate changes to consumer prices is much lower than to import prices. One explanation is local distribution costs. Here we consider an alternative, complementary explanation based on the optimal pricing strategies of firms. We consider a model where foreign exporting firms sell intermediate goods to domestic firms. Domestic firms assemble the imported intermediate goods and sell final goods to consumers. When domestic firms face signi...
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作者：Imbs, Jean; Mumtaz, Haroon; Ravn, Morten O.; Rey, Helene
作者单位：University of London; London Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We confirm the presence of substantial nonlinearities in real exchange rate dynamics at the sectoral level. There exists zones where arbitrage is not profitable because of transaction costs, and thus mean reversion is inexistent. We compute the speed of mean reversion of sector specific real exchange rates, conditional on the existence of arbitrage as implied by our nonlinear estimations, and relate them to plausible economic determinants such as tradability and exchange rate volatility. (JEL:...
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作者：Aghion, Philippe; Bolton, Patrick
作者单位：Harvard University; University of London; University College London; Princeton University
摘要：There is a long normative 'Social Contract' tradition that attempts to characterize ex-post income inequalities that are agreeable to all 'behind a veil of ignorance.' This paper takes a similar normative approach to characterize social decision-making procedures. It is shown that quite generally some form of majority-voting is preferred to unanimity 'behind a veil of ignorance' whenever society faces deadweight costs in making compensating transfers. Deviations from unanimity (or ex-post Pare...
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作者：Tirole, Jean; Persson, Torsten; Neary, Peter; Blundell, Richard
摘要：In this paper we define and estimate measures of labor market frictions using data on job durations. We compare different estimation methods and different types of data. We propose and apply an unconditional inference method that can be applied to aggregate duration data. It does not require wage data, it is invariant to the way in which wages are determined, and it allows workers to care about other job characteristics. The empirical analysis focuses on France, but we perform separate analyse...
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作者：Coupe, Tom
摘要：In this paper, I study the production of academic research by economics departments and economists. Worldwide rankings are provided based on both citations and publications. These rankings reveal a dominant position of the United States in the production of economics literature. Over time, however, the extent of this dominance is decreasing. (JEL: A10, A14)
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作者：Smets, Frank; Wouters, Raf
作者单位：European Central Bank; European Central Bank; National Bank of Belgium
摘要：Recently there has been a great deal of interest in studying monetary policy under model uncertainty. We point out that different assumptions about the uncertainty may result in drastically different robust policy recommendations. Therefore, we develop new methods to analyze uncertainty about the parameters of a model, the lag specification, the serial correlation of shocks, and the effects of real-time data in one coherent structure. We consider both parametric and nonparametric specification...
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作者：Banerjee, Abhijit V.; Duflo, Esther; Munshi, Kaivan
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Is capital allocated so that its marginal product is equated to the market interest rate? Is the marginal product of capital equalized across its alternative uses? This paper attempts to answer both of these questions using data from India, and concludes that both these standard properties fail by a wide margin. (JEL: O16, G2)
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作者：Bourguignon, Francois; Nunez, Jairo; Sanchez, Fabio
作者单位：The World Bank; Universite PSL; Ecole Normale Superieure (ENS)
摘要：Economic theory suggests that inequality should influence crime positively. Yet, the evidence in favor of that hypothesis is weak. Pure cross-sectional analyses show significant positive effects but cannot control for fixed effects. Time series and panel data point to a variety of results, but few turn out being significant. The hypothesis maintained in this paper is that it is a specific part of the distribution, rather than the overall distribution as summarized by conventional inequality me...
